Welcome to this week's Crypto Market Watch! Here, we delve deep into the crypto realm to provide you with a thorough examination of noteworthy occurrences and emerging patterns. BTC and ETH are experiencing remarkable surges, while Polygon is rapidly gaining ground in the gaming sector. On-chain activity is on the rise, and astute investors are strategically positioning themselves, indicating a resurgence in risk appetite. Now, for the grand finale: the impending confirmation of the ETF, could it be this year? It appears to be the final puzzle piece awaiting placement.

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Alpha Take Of The Week

‎If you’re reading this, take note of how early you are, Anon.

Narratives of the Week: Market Surge & What Is Happening In Gaming And NFTs

Market Overview

Firstly, the move by BlackRock to register an iShares Ethereum Trust in Delaware has drawn attention to Ethereum as an institutional-grade investment. Ethereum experienced a surge in price, breaking the $2K barrier for the first time since July. This development indicates growing institutional interest in Ethereum and its potential as a valuable asset class. 

Moving on, Bloomberg analysts suggest an 8-day window starting on November 9, during which there is potential for the approval of several spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, it's important to note that the SEC has not indicated definitive approval, and the opening of this window does not guarantee ETF approvals. Investors are hopeful due to factors such as the SEC's request for comments on proposals and changes made by applicants to address concerns, including market manipulation safeguards and surveillance-sharing agreements. The outcome remains uncertain, but the possibility of multiple ETF approvals within this timeframe is noteworthy.

Meanwhile, MicroStrategy has reaped substantial profits from its Bitcoin holdings as it rallied to a yearly high of over $37K. With MicroStrategy having acquired 158,400 BTC for $4.68B as of September 30, their investment has shown an impressive unrealized gain of $1.2B.

Bitcoin itself has seen remarkable price volatility, reaching a yearly high and pushing its market cap to surpass that of Tesla. This surge in Bitcoin's market cap is largely attributed to the optimism surrounding the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. The market cap increase marked a significant one-day percentage change and served as a testament to Bitcoin's resilience and appeal as a digital asset.

Furthermore, Bitcoin's futures market has witnessed a surge in open interest, indicating a growing interest in Bitcoin trading contracts. Moreover, open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts decreased by over 5%, with CME now surpassing Binance as the largest exchange in this regard. 

Lastly, short-term Bitcoin holders have reaped substantial profits over a 48-hour period, indicating significant profit-taking by this segment of investors. These short-term holders have extracted $1.8b in profits, showcasing their cautious approach in a volatile market.

NFTs

*All the data below was sourced from Footprint Analytics unless otherwise stated.

Setting the stage: Gaming and NFTs have recently experienced a significant surge in activity, and it's clear that both of these markets are here to stay. They are poised to play a pivotal role, not only in the realm of crypto, but also in the broader landscape of the internet. Why, you ask? Well, internet culture is in a constant state of evolution, and one of the most noteworthy innovations in recent years that has fueled this evolution is the widespread adoption of NFTs in various forms.

It's important to note that NFTs extend far beyond profile pictures and gaming; their utility spans countless areas. In a world where most assets are non-fungible, NFTs provide a groundbreaking solution by enabling the representation of these unique assets on the blockchain. While some may still dismiss NFTs as insignificant, those of us who have remained engaged in the crypto space for an extended period know better. We can see the trajectory of the world.

Looking ahead 10 to 15 years, when AI, crypto, VR, and AR seamlessly converge into an experience almost indistinguishable from "real life," where the majority of human activities across all domains will converge, who will still be skeptical?

In summary, it's essential to stay closely attuned to these developments, as this is where we anticipate witnessing the most remarkable advancements, even if the current state of activity of many games and NFT collections is disappointing. But enough preamble; let's dive into the data!

Volume and market cap have seen a significant surge since the lows of early October. 

OpenSea maintains its dominance in the NFT market when it comes to its number of collections, leaving Blur trailing far behind. It's worth noting that Blur garnered substantial interest, especially considering its launch took place after the peak of the bull market. Unlike older platforms that launched during the height of the bull market and even offered airdrops, they couldn't generate the same level of interest.

Ethereum still continues to dominate most of the NFT volume. The usual suspects continue to generate the most interest when it comes to traditional NFTs and the top 10, though there have been some recent new collections rotating into the top 10.

Ethereum still continues to dominate most of the NFT volume. The usual suspects continue to generate the most interest when it comes to traditional NFTs and the top 10, though there have been some recent new collections rotating into the top 10.

Polygon has come to be the dominant chain for NFT activity. This is likely due to the explosion of gaming activity on the chain. 

Blur is currently leading in NFT volume, with Opensea taking the lead in daily trades. However, it's worth noting that Blur has been flagged for more wash trading compared to Opensea. This increase in volume could be related to the upcoming anticipated airdrop on Blur. It will be intriguing to observe if Blur can sustain these metrics after the airdrop. Additionally, users should keep in mind that rumors about an OS token have been circulating since the 2021 bull run, which could be a significant factor for OS in the upcoming bull run.

It's worth noting that the majority of wash trading is happening on Ethereum. This is interesting because it suggests that the growth observed on chains like BNB and Polygon could be more organic and reflect actual user activity. 

Gaming

Although the realm of crypto gaming has yet to attain mainstream recognition, astute observers believe that the tokens associated with these projects hold the potential for astronomical growth. Given the relatively limited participation in this nascent field, there exist abundant opportunities for early entry and substantial returns.

A recent report by Dapp Radar found that the GameFi market presently boasts an impressive market capitalization of $9.9B. Across the GameFi landscape, there are a staggering 650,000 active users, with 16% of them actively engaged in the AlienWorlds ecosystem. The proliferation of innovative protocols within this space signals a forthcoming explosion in the burgeoning green market, indicative of significant growth and potential.

Blockchain gaming maintains its strong presence in the blockchain space. In the latest month, there has been a notable 17% increase in Unique Active Wallets (UAW) engaging with gaming compared to September, resulting in a total of 1.7M unique active wallets. This uptick has also solidified gaming's dominance in the market, marking a 10% increase. Notably, in October, approximately 62% of all Dapp activity stemmed from gaming projects. Within the realm of NFT gaming collections Sorare, Axie Infinity, and Gods Unchained have consistently maintained their positions as some of the most actively traded NFT collections. 

NFT buyers and sellers make up the majority of activity on all chains. This metric reveals how underutilized the GameFi ecosystem really is. 

The following three graphs compare gaming activity on Ethereum, BNB, and Polygon. Polygon stands out as the dominant chain for gaming, where games like Ultimate Champions, Benji Bananas, and Sunflower Land have a staggering number of users. It is likely that gaming's future will shift to other L1s or L2 solutions, and cease completely on Ethereum due to high costs and fees for users.

In conclusion, the gaming and NFT markets are witnessing growth and are poised to remain influential in both the crypto space and the broader internet culture.  

Despite not yet achieving mainstream participation, crypto gaming tokens offer substantial growth potential, especially for early entrants. GameFi demonstrates impressive market capitalization, and gaming projects continue to feature heavily in the blockchain space. As we look to the future, the market leaders from the last bull run still hold sway, but changes may occur. Keeping an eye on this space, particularly on Polygon, where gaming and NFTs are thriving, is advisable as the landscape continues to evolve.

Project Spotlight: Gambling on Solana with Zeebit 

Recent weeks have witnessed significant gains for projects like Rollbit. It's probable that as retail investors re-enter the market and gas prices skyrocket, even Layer 2 solutions, which have experienced concerning price hikes to high demand in the past, may struggle to handle the increased volume. In such scenarios, users are likely to turn to blockchain networks like Solana and BNB, despite concerns about decentralization voiced by seasoned users.

Another compelling reason is the rapid growth of the gambling industry, especially in the realm of online gambling. This trend is expected to continue, particularly as macroeconomic conditions worsen, mirroring historical patterns where gambling thrived during times of financial stress. 

The rise of CasinoFi has led to blockchain-based casinos gaining substantial traction, yet the existing centralized operators come with inherent issues such as heavy centralization, censorship, and high operational costs.

Enter Zeebit: Unlike traditional operators, Zeebit is not just another online casino but a fully decentralized platform built on the Solana blockchain. This project aims to democratize gambling, offering players an immersive, transparent, and community-centric gaming experience.

Zeebit brings forth original, provably fair games powered by Solana's Smart Contracts, ensuring transparency and fairness. It eliminates the need for extensive sign-ups and data sharing, prioritizing user privacy. Zeebit allows for swift fund transfers without the constraints of regional banking rails. Early users of Zeebit will be rewarded for joining their platform. Devnet has launched and Mainnet is on the horizon. 

Other projects in the same vein as Zeebit on Solana include Moonroll, OwlDao, and Solcasino.io. Be sure to check them out to tap into this emerging trend. 

DeFi, L1s & L2s

News

• Circle teases IPO.

• The Dubai International Financial Centre has approved Ripple's XRP and TON, expanding the list of crypto allowed within its special economic zone to five, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin.

• Meme tokens associated with Musk's new ChatGPT competitor, Grok, have started appearing on various blockchains.

• Nansen 2 is coming soon.

• Binance has unveiled Binance Messenger, believed to be a chat application, now available on the Apple Store.

• Kraken plan to launch their own L2.

• Evmos is ceasing operation on Cosmos.

• Crypto funds extend their streak, accumulating $767M over six weeks, with ether experiencing its most substantial inflow since August 2022.

• The Nil Foundation has introduced an Ethereum ZK-Rollup solution with sharding support.

• Banana Gun complete audit and release report.

• Lido has approved a proposal to incorporate a simple distributed validator technology module from Obol and SSV Network. 

• Arbitrum community approved the initial vote on a proposal to activate token staking.

• KuCoin and Gate exchanges to list BRC-20 memecoin Sats.

• Aave temporarily halts V2 operations on Ethereum and restricts specific assets on V3 in response to a reported issue.

• Debita Finance is coming to Fantom.

• Linea’sDeFi voyage has officially launched.

• Gear Box launch V3.

• Ava Labs confirms layoffs impacting 12% of Avalanche Studio's workforce.

• crvUSD to deploy on VenusProtocol and Venus to launch Ethereum at the same time.

• Prisma Finance announced retroactive airdrop.

• HSBC, the London-based financial giant, has ventured into gold tokenization, allowing clients to own tokenized physical gold held in its London vault.

• ZachXBT warns against fake Ledger live app on the official Microsoft App Store.

• Llama, a smart contract governance platform, secures $6 million in seed funding.

• After a two-year run, the Conflux multichain protocol is ceasing operations.

• Sushi launch proposal to upgrade tokenomics.

• The Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong released regulations for the tokenization of digital assets.

• Short sellers on Coinbase incur losses of $2.2B as Bitcoin ETF excitement reaches its peak.

• Dune is set to launch Dune AI.

• Butter Finance has launched.

• The core team behind DEX aggregator CoW Swap suggests implementing fees as part of a six-month testing phase.

• Nomic activates the nBTC upgrade to introduce tokenized Bitcoin into the Cosmos ecosystem.

• Synapse Labs introduces Synapse X, a modular bridging solution.

The supply of the top five stablecoins, including USDT, USDC, BUSD, TUSD, and DAI, has started to grow again after a period of contraction, marking the first such growth since April 2022

BUSD supply has sharply declined by over 90%: Dropping from nearly 23 billion to around 1.88 billion, signaling a significant loss in market share and demand for BUSD in favor of other stablecoins like USDT, USDC, and DAI.

The dApp market is showing signs of resurgence in 'Uptober’: Crucial metrics are stabilizing or growing, hinting at a potential bull run. NEAR Protocol leads with the highest daily average unique active wallets (dUAW), growing by 7% to 687,000.

In 2023, the digital asset market has shown impressive returns: BTC and ETH have outperformed traditional assets like gold by 93% and 39%, respectively. Notably, market corrections for BTC and ETH have been shallower than in previous cycles, indicating strong investor support and positive capital inflows

There has been a notable shift in Bitcoin exchange flow: This has been marked by a significant increase in BTC withdrawals, indicating a growing preference among investors to hold their Bitcoin assets long-term off-exchange. This trend suggests a stronger belief in the long-term value of Bitcoin. 

Blue Chip and Majors Overview 

• $ARK: Up by 107%, ARK has more than doubled in value, showcasing a remarkable growth spurt in the market.

• $CAKE: PancakeSwap's token, CAKE, experienced significant growth due to new features and strategic moves like Binance’s CAKE Perpetual Contract and a Position Manager that enhances yield farming, incentivizing early adoption with increased rewards. 

• $SUSHI: SUSHI has seen a 55% rise, suggesting a healthy appetite for this asset among traders after its renewed gameplan for the protocol. 

• $TON: TON's value has increased by 52%, crossing the halfway mark to doubling its value.

• $EGLD: EGLD's appreciation was fueled by MultiversX's partnership with Google Cloud, which is expected to harness Google's AI and data analytics tools for large-scale blockchain projects.

• $OSMO: Osmosis has shown a 15% price increase in the last 7 days.

Degen Corner

• The 19th Gitcoin Grants program is now open for participation. If you plan on contributing, aim for amounts that are $5-$10 or more. This has led to users being airdropped in the past. 

• $WEMIX has seen a 105% increase over the past 7 days has been attributed to its comprehensive ecosystem, partnerships, and the integration of blockchain in gaming to create a more engaging experience.

• The early admission of $MEME to Binance, carrying a substantial initial market capitalization of $1.6B, has elicited a varied reaction from the market.

• A.I. Tokens are garnering significant attention, especially with the increased volume following the recent OpenAI conference. Fetch.ai ($FET) increased by 74%, and Bittensor ($TAO) appreciated by 42%

• $GAS has seen an extraordinary sevenfold increase in its price within a fortnight, marking it as one of the most actively traded crypto recently in the current market.

• $HELLO has seen a price rise of 44% in the past week.

• $KAS has demonstrated notable market strength, stepping into a phase of price discovery once more. Its prominence within the crypto community has remained modest in spite of significant price movements

• $BITCOIN, $MOG, $JOE, $SPX, and Smurf Cat: These coins are currently in a consolidation phase, and it's an open question whether they will continue the momentum they have recently shown.

Smart Money Movements

Tokens:

• Smart Money's been on a shopping spree for Arbitrum tokens – they're really into $LODE, $EMP, $KUJI  and $RDNT.

• In the AI world, they're stacking up on $MAI and $OLAS.

• Oh, and keep an eye out for their stash of $RVST.

• New kids on the block, like $grok, have piqued smart money's interest as well.

• With recent gains, we're all wondering when they'll cash in.

Yield Farms:

• Smart farmers are farming on Prisma Finance, enjoying a nice 9.44% APR for mkUSD. Want to double that? Lock in some $Prisma tokens.

• Camelot V3 on Arbitrum is also on their radar, especially those stEUR pools – check 'em out!

Airdrops:

• Smart Money isn't missing out on the Layerzero airdrop, staying active even after some snapshot rumors.

Major Onchain Moves:

• DWF Labs has recently provided liquidity for their newly acquired $SHRAP tokens, expanding trading possibilities from centralized exchanges to decentralized ones on the AVAX chain. DWF Address.

• A big $SIS unlock happened yesterday, around 2% of the circulating supply got unlocked! Transaction 

NFTs & Gaming

News

• Magic Eden is partnering with Yuga Labs to create an Ethereum NFT marketplace committed to enforcing creator royalties, launching by year-end. This move follows Yuga Labs' plan to sever ties with OpenSea due to its shift towards a royalty-free model, causing a decline in revenue.

• The Simpsons recently aired an episode that humorously targeted NFTs, but prior to this satirical take, the show had released two NFTs for fans to buy and trade, showcasing the growing presence of NFTs in popular culture.

• Jokerace have introduced NFT allowlists.

• Vertu's CEO presented the Metavertu II as a luxury crypto phone that serves as a "passport to the Web3 world." 

• OpenSea Pro is now live on Polygon.

• Rarible introduce RaribleX.

• Yuga Labs co-founder spends $1.5M on NFTs in recent days.

• Pak recently shared a cryptic gif hinting at a forthcoming collection. This move did not sit well with the community due to his past actions. 

• Nike-RTFKT's crypto ecosystem is nearing a substantial milestone, with nearly $1.4B in NFT trading activity. Sneaker enthusiasts are eagerly participating in this crypto universe.

• Lens complete phase 1 of migration to V2.

• The Sandbox unveils open publishing and introduces a new Game Maker Fund worth 100 million SAND tokens during its inaugural Global Creators Day event held in Hong Kong.

• Immutable partner with Ubisoft Strategic Innovation Lab.

• Zora have launched Gamma, an on-chain art ecosystem for artists.

• Treehouse, a Singapore-based Web3 data firm, has acquired NFT analytics platform Origins to enhance its NFT product offerings and expand into the NFT analytics sector.

• Adidas and Bugatti have joined forces to produce an exclusive line of football boots, named the adidas X Crazyfast Bugatti. This limited edition collection comprises only 99 pairs and will be accessible through an auction on the Adidas Collect Web3 platform from November 8 to 11. 

• Illuvium is live on the Epic Games store and Illuvium Beta 3: PVP is coming.

Project Spotlight: Earn Alliance

Earn Alliance, the leading web3 game aggregator and discoverability platform, has raised a significant $4.75M in its latest funding round, positioning itself as a major player in the blockchain gaming ecosystem. This innovative platform boasts over 100,000 monthly active users who gain access to thousands of games, NFT launches, news, updates, and engaging content.

• The heart of Earn Alliance lies in its thriving community, seamlessly integrating over 2,000 web3 game-related social and content feeds, including popular titles like BigTime, Kingdom Story, Stella Fantasy, and Gods Unchained. 

• These collaborations have resulted in an astonishing 500,000 NFTs generated in 2023 and remarkable community growth of up to 362% for some games. The platform's mission is to streamline interactions with web3 game markets and digital collectibles, making management effortless and unified.

• With a robust roadmap that includes a successful Private Alpha launch, the minting of Discord Badges, and expansion into mobile app development, Earn Alliance is redefining the future of web3 gaming. 

• As a community-driven project, it seeks to empower gamers, game studios, and developers alike, fostering a holistic ecosystem that inspires and transforms lives in the world of blockchain gaming.

Degen Corner

• Fusionist, a web3 gaming firm, is gearing up for its second beta test scheduled for November 22 on the Steam platform. This time, the test will be extended to accommodate 3,000 participants. In May 2022, Fusionist successfully raised $6.6M during its seed round, with leading contributions from Binance Labs and FunPlus. Be sure to try to participate. 

• The Phantom Galaxies platform has opened its mint for the third class of Avatars and Starfighters, available without gatekeeping or whitelists. Users can mint NFTs using ASTRAFER tokens.

• Try out the new creator dashboard on Sudoswap.

• Pixels have migrated to Ronin. Play and mint NFT pets and earn $BERRY.

• The Machines Arena has launched Beta Season 2, offering character skins, an in-game store, a new game mode, and more. The update includes bugfixes, free bundles for players, and Halloween-themed outfits in the in-game store. 

• Sweat Economy, has leveraged its existing user base and expanded its offerings. It currently holds the top spot in terms of active users among web3 games. The challenge ahead is whether it can sustain its growth without disrupting its in-game economy.

• Earn rewards with the first fully on-chain mobile game, Drawtech. 

• NFTfi no longer needs users to wrap their punks. Users can use this platform to take out loans against their NFTs. 

• Fableborne is set to airdrop Primordial Essence, a special in-game currency used to buy NFTs from their upcoming marketplace. The game will conduct an airdrop for users who participated in certain tasks till November 6th, but it is anticipated there will be more  future airdrops. 

NFT-related tokens: the current market leaders in terms of volume, market cap, and token price are still made up of projects that were at the center of the last bull run. It will be interesting to see if this changes in the coming cycle. Another important note is that tokens such as $MANA and $SAND still continue to be traded despite the metaverse narrative largely fading. Currently, Polygon seems to be developing the most exciting ecosystem for gaming and NFT-related projects, and the user base is reflecting this. 

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