Macro Relief, Crypto Still Stuck

GM Anon!

Another week of failed breakout attempts, and the market is starting to feel it. Every push higher looked promising on the surface, but none of them stuck long enough to change the tape. Crypto has been choppy and reactive, with conviction staying thin and positioning increasingly selective. It wasn’t a collapse, but it wasn’t progress either. More digestion, more patience, and a market still waiting for real follow through. Let’s dive in.

TLDR

• CPI surprised lower, briefly stabilizing markets before data quality concerns capped risk appetite.

• BoJ’s 25bp hike added global tightening pressure, keeping equities fragile.

• Crypto stayed volatile alongside weaker stocks, with BTC dominance rising.

• $300B dormant BTC moved while whales accumulated ~$23B, pointing to redistribution not panic.

• BTC active addresses hit a one-year low, showing thinner retail participation.

• XMR pushed toward its 2021 highs; SOL balanced innovation with network stress.

• Institutions kept accumulating, led by large BTC and ETH balance-sheet buys.

• Market access expanded via XRP ETFs, CME futures, and onchain Treasury pilots.

• Stablecoin and payment rails accelerated across Visa, PayPal, and global banks.

Market Update

Markets opened the week on a cautiously constructive footing after CPI came in below expectations, helping stabilize futures and briefly ease pressure across risk assets. That initial relief was tempered as economists flagged potential flaws in the November inflation report, raising questions about how durable the disinflation signal really is.

Outside the U.S., the Bank of Japan’s 25bp rate hike reintroduced a tightening impulse into the global macro mix, contributing to a softer equity tone as the week progressed. In parallel, AI-linked deal flow remained active, with OpenAI reportedly in talks with the UAE for funding, and that theme carried into crypto-adjacent equities as Hut 8 surged on an AI deal involving Anthropic and Fluidstack.

Crypto price action reflected the shakier equity backdrop, trading volatile as stocks fell and BTC dominance pushed higher, signaling a more defensive internal rotation. On-chain data pointed to redistribution rather than capitulation, with $300B in dormant BTC entering circulation in 2025 alongside roughly $23B of whale accumulation over the past month, even as BTC active addresses fell to a one-year low. That combination suggests activity is becoming more concentrated among larger holders. Within majors, XMR stood out as it approached its May 2021 ATH, while SOL remained a focal point both for progress, piloting quantum-resistant transactions, and for resilience under pressure, facing sustained DDoS attacks during the week.

Institutional activity and market structure developments continued to build beneath the surface. Strategy disclosed an additional $980M BTC purchase, while BitMine added $141M more ETH and separately reported a larger $321m ETH buy, reinforcing ongoing balance-sheet accumulation. Market access broadened further as spot XRP ETF inflows surpassed $1B and CME launched spot-quoted XRP and SOL futures.

Tokenization and infrastructure initiatives also advanced, with DTCC beginning an onchain Treasury test on Canton, Securitize moving toward launching “real” stocks onchain alongside Anchorage’s acquisition of its wealth management unit, and OKX rolling out spot margin trading in Europe. Coinbase expanded its product suite with stock trading and prediction markets, while MetaMask introduced BTC support.

Payments, stablecoins, and regulatory signals rounded out the week’s narrative. Visa rolled out USDC settlement on Solana, PayPal introduced a PYUSD savings vault on Spark, and Ripple tapped Wormhole to expand RLUSD to Layer 2s, while Exodus and MoonPay moved to launch a USD stablecoin, SoFi introduced its own stablecoin, Japan’s SBI Holdings announced plans for a stablecoin, and Russia’s Sberbank began testing DeFi products.

On the policy front, the Fed withdrew its 2023 crypto restrictions, the SEC confirmed broker-dealers can maintain crypto private keys, the FDIC proposed a stablecoin application framework, and senators pushed to advance crypto legislation, including a bill aimed at combating fraud. 

Legal and political crosscurrents remained active, with the Senate confirming CFTC chair pick Seelig, the Clarity Act pointed to January, Terraform’s liquidator suing Jump Trading for $4b, Coinbase suing three states over prediction markets, Binance exploring a U.S. relaunch, and Bitwise filing for a SUI ETF. Overall, the week reflected a market balancing macro uncertainty with steady structural progress, keeping risk appetite cautious but engaged.

Market Data Points

BTC dominance has been a two-act story this year. First half was BTC-led as dominance expanded and marked rotation lows. Midyear onward, dominance trended lower as ETH and alts got more room. October’s deleveraging broke the rebuild attempt, and the year-end bounce in dominance has faded.

SOPR slipping below 1 confirms coins are being spent at a loss, which fits marginal capitulation and weak-hand cleanup. It does not call a bottom by itself, but it often shows up late in sell pressure within a range, where further downside needs a fresh catalyst.

Long-term holders are active, but it’s distribution into strength, not a panic exit. The 30-day LTH distribution metric has surged to cycle-high levels, yet overall LTH supply remains near record territory and only modestly off the highs. That implies supply is being absorbed rather than dumped wholesale, constructive if spot demand holds.

Short-term holders remain underwater, with STH MVRV below 1 and stress still visible in recent cohorts. It’s an uncomfortable regime, but historically it resolves through stabilization once loss-taking exhausts.

Bottom line: sellers are present, but behavior is orderly. The next leg depends less on leverage and more on whether spot demand shows up strongly enough to clear overhead supply.

Majors & Memes

Weekly price action across the majors remained heavy, with most large-caps finishing the week lower despite brief rebounds. BTC slipped about 2.5% on the week, continuing to churn rather than break down, while ETH underperformed slightly with a roughly 3.5% decline. BNB followed a similar path, down just over 3%, and SOL and XRP both saw deeper pullbacks of around 5% over the seven-day window. DOGE also faded, losing just over 4%. TRX stood out as the exception among majors, posting a modest weekly gain of roughly 2.4%.

Away from the large caps, performance was far more polarized. On the upside, HUMANITY and FTN dominated the leaderboard with outsized weekly gains well above 100%, reflecting sharp momentum-driven moves off relatively lower base levels. NIGHT also printed a strong advance of around 35%, while mid-tier gainers such as SYRUP, CC, and PIPPIN posted high-teens to low-20% advances. Among more established names, XMR added about 8% on the week and BCH gained roughly 6.5%, both benefiting from rotation into names showing cleaner relative trends versus the broader market.

On the downside, weakness was concentrated in previously strong and higher-beta names. LGCT saw the sharpest drawdown, falling more than 65% over seven days, while PUMP, ASTER, FARTCOIN, and TAO all posted losses in the 20–30% range. Broader pullbacks were also visible in liquid large- and mid-caps, with STRK, MON, ENA, HYPE, and ONDO all down low- to mid-teens on the week.

Smart Money Moves

Trench activity is still quiet, but the last seven days show selective smart money engagement rather than a full retreat. Flows are small in absolute terms, yet they clustered into a few names. ZK and PING lead with roughly $40K and $38K in 7-day inflows, both driven by a single wallet, making them targeted bets more than crowd trades. Below that, KLED, NEOX, and SURF also saw steady net buying, but sizing stays cautious, consistent with “probe first, press later” behavior.

Holdings remain concentrated and mostly stable, reinforcing the idea that smart money is prioritizing structure over turnover. TIBBIR is the standout allocation at roughly $1.3M across multiple wallets, while VIRTUAL shows a sharp balance increase off a small holder base. JELLYJELLY and ATH also show incremental adds, whereas larger names like CRV, MKR, and CAKE look broadly unchanged, suggesting they’re being held rather than actively rotated.

On the attention side, token popularity continues to spike and fade rather than trend cleanly higher, which fits the cautious flow profile. Names like ENA, JELLYJELLY, and PING appear to catch bursts of interest, but it doesn’t look sustained across the full week. Net-net, the data reads like quiet accumulation in a handful of setups, with smart money staying selective and keeping risk contained until broader participation returns.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀