Market Climb Stalls, Pressure Mounts

GM Anon!

August's off to a shaky start—macro’s twitchy, markets are jumpy, and crypto’s feeling it.
Trump’s making noise again, the Fed’s still undecided, and the dollar won’t quit. ETH’s pulling ahead quietly while memes chop and majors drift. Smart money’s playing it tight, but the rotation game is still on. Let’s dive in.

TLDR

• Fed Holds, Dollar Surges — Trump reignites tariff pressure; macro volatility climbs.

• BTC Weakens Post-Close — stalls below highs, ETH ETF flows accelerate.

• ETH Dominates Flows — $10B+ in treasuries, perp dominance flips BTC, ETF volume >$3B/day.

• Solana Stays Resilient — Let’s Bonk holds 82% share, TROLL hits $60M FDV.

• Memecoins Whipsaw — PUMP +30%, REKT nears ATH, BONK, FARTCOIN fade.

• Massive Treasury Allocations — $2B+ raises from Strategy, BTCS, Sharplink, Life Sciences.
  SEC Signals Greenlight — in-kind ETPs approved, crypto “not securities,” Project Crypto launched.

• Platform Expansion Builds — Kraken IPO plans, MetaMask staking/yield, Coinbase links banks.

• On-Chain Strength in ETH — network activity spikes, stablecoin TVL >$140B, exchange inflows rise.

• Smart Money Rotates Selectively — Solana wallets shuffle, PEPE, JOE, KIBSHI gain in EVM.

Market Updates

Markets entered August under pressure, with volatility surfacing across both traditional and crypto assets. U.S. stock futures slipped after Trump confirmed new tariff hikes, raising the floor from 10% to 15%, while reigniting friction with Powell, suggesting the Fed Board take control of monetary policy. The Fed left rates unchanged, but the internal divide is growing. Odds of a September cut dropped to 41% after job data came in strong, and the dollar extended its rally, logging its biggest five-day gain since 2022 and hitting two-month highs. Against this backdrop, retail traders pushed options activity to all-time highs, while tech megacaps kept soaring—Nvidia passed $4.5T, Microsoft hit $4T, and Apple crushed earnings, reinforcing momentum in AI-led equities.

The crypto market reacted with mixed flows. BTC set a record monthly close, then faded amid macro stress and risk recalibration. ETF inflows into ETH continued to surpass BTC, with volume on ETH ETF products hitting $2–3B daily. ETH perp dominance has now overtaken BTC for the first time. Treasuries linked to ETH topped $10B as institutions aggressively built positions. Ether Machine bought $57M, BTCS raised $2B to accumulate, 180 Life Sciences committed $425M, and Sharplink added $295M—bringing on a BlackRock exec to guide the strategy. Strategy itself raised $2.8B and deployed $2.4B into BTC. Marathon added $950M via debt, and Metaplanet purchased $92.5M BTC, while Twenty One Capital received 5.8K BTC from Tether.

Solana held up well, with Let's Bonk retaining 82% market share and TROLL pushing to $60M FDV. Memecoin majors corrected 10–20% early in the week, but names like PUMP rebounded 30%, lifting back above $3B FDV. REKT pushed toward ATHs again, and Liquid Gold sold out in three minutes. NFT activity spiked then cooled—CryptoPunks floor reached $210K before the Thursday dump. ZORA, Otherdeeds, and Autoglyphs were among the top movers.

The regulatory environment continued to evolve. The SEC approved in-kind mechanisms for ETPs, marking a structural win for fund issuers. Lummis introduced a bill to allow crypto as mortgage collateral. Most notably, SEC Commissioner Atkins stated that most crypto assets are not securities, while also calling for U.S. leadership in the tokenization race. The SEC also launched “Project Crypto” to explore tokenized financial instruments.

On the institutional product side, eToro and Toro launched tokenized U.S. equities on ETH. Coinbase and JPM are linking crypto wallets to bank accounts. Paypal activated multi-crypto payments. MetaMask rolled out stablecoin yield and SOL staking. Visa integrated EURC, PYUSD, and USDG. Interactive Brokers hinted at stablecoin support. MUFG announced plans to tokenize a $681M building.

On-chain and fund flows continued to favor ETH. ETH activity rose with stablecoin TVL now above $140B, and Ethereum network transactions pushing toward 1.5M daily. Exchange inflows surged for both BTC and ETH. Altcoins rotated sharply: SUI drew $278M and a $450M treasury launch, SOL got a $500M raise from Upexi, and DOGE received $500M in planned buys from Bit Origin. BNB saw $500M each from Nano Labs and CEA Industries.

Narrative attention fluctuated across memes and L2s. Memeland announced a new creator platform. KAITO pushed changes to leaderboard mechanics. Mindshare remained fragmented—Let's Bonk still dominant, but other plays struggled to sustain momentum. Despite Thursday’s selloff, crypto ended the week stronger after a trade agreement between the U.S. and EU helped revive sentiment.

The ETH anniversary at Nasdaq brought key figures together as Ethereum outlined a 10-year vision for scaling to 10K TPS. Meanwhile, ETH $6K by Christmas odds are climbing. The four-year crypto cycle may be dead, but this new structure—fueled by tokenization, treasuries, and ETFs—is forming fast. BTC remains the benchmark, but it's ETH and the new breed of modular, institutionally-aligned plays that are setting the tone now.

Market Data Points

This week saw crypto funds post their largest 4-week inflow in history, with nearly $7B pouring in, according to data from BofA Global Investment Strategy and EPFR. The spike in inflows marks a historic turning point for digital assets, surpassing previous highs set during peak bull market conditions.

Such a sharp surge in capital suggests that institutional players have aggressively rotated back into the space, likely driven by a combination of macro tailwinds, ETF-driven optimism, and the broader narrative of crypto as a hedge in an increasingly unstable global environment. The 4-week moving average also hit a new high, confirming this isn’t just a one-off spike but part of a sustained upward trend.

This kind of inflow behavior has historically preceded periods of strong price performance across the crypto market. While retail sentiment remains cautious, institutional flows are signaling a major vote of confidence — one that could set the tone for the second half of 2025.

Traders on Polymarket are leaning increasingly bullish. Odds for ETH to hit $6K by year-end rose to 33%, making it the most actively repriced upside level this week. Meanwhile, $7K odds hold steady around 21%, and $8K climbed slightly to 16% — both signaling growing confidence in a strong Q4.

That said, the market still overwhelmingly prices in a $4K close, with 90% probability, while a $5K finish sits at 54%. Even a moonshot to $10K holds a 9% edge — modest, but notable.

Overall, sentiment is gradually recalibrating higher. Risk appetite is returning, and Polymarket flows show traders beginning to price in a late-year ETH breakout.

NFTs are leading the pack with the strongest 30-day performance across all narratives — up over 130% — followed closely by SocialFi and Cross-chain tokens. With CryptoPunks floor prices on the rise again, this NFT resurgence feels like a key canary in the coal mine, historically signaling the start of alt season. Seeing NFTs back on the map could be the major signal traders have been waiting for.

Meanwhile, narratives like AI and DeFi-AI are still lagging, though they remain in the green. This may just be the calm before the storm. Users are already sweeping key collections and rotating into predictive sectors, setting up for what could be another explosive move.

Solana DEX volume came in at $3.3B on July 30th, marking another strong day driven heavily by meme coin activity, which accounted for nearly $1.45B — over 43% of total volume. SOL-stablecoin pairs followed closely behind at $1.43B, showing continued risk appetite and healthy liquidity rotation. 

While volume remains off the May highs, it’s been steadily recovering throughout late July, with meme coins and project tokens reclaiming market share. Notably, niche categories like AI Agents and Composite Assets also saw minor upticks, suggesting traders are positioning ahead of a potential broader rotation.

Majors & Memes

Majors were broadly lower this week, with few exceptions. BTC dipped just over 3%, continuing to chop within its multi-week range and showing little initiative to break higher or lower. Despite the weakness, it’s holding above $113K—a level that’s quietly becoming a psychological anchor. ETH fared worse, sliding over 5% after a mid-week fade, but remains structurally intact near $3,500. It continues to lead in mindshare and narrative flow, even if price hasn’t followed through yet.

SOL dropped sharply, down more than 11% on the week. It failed to defend the $170 zone and is now consolidating below $165. The broader Solana ecosystem has cooled off after strong July inflows, and SOL is reflecting that slowdown. DOGE saw one of the sharper pullbacks among majors, falling over 14%, retracing nearly all of its recent meme-led strength. ADA also tumbled more than 11%, breaking down from short-term support and giving back its July progress. Elsewhere, XRP lost 4.6%, while BNB showed relative resilience, only down 1.9%. TRX was the lone bright spot in the top 10, posting a mild 2.7% gain—likely a reflection of its consistent stablecoin utility.

Outside the majors, capital rotated into high-beta names early in the week before fading hard. On the upside, TROLL led with a staggering 308% gain, followed by URANUS (+250%) and LOKA (+172%). These were mostly low-cap narrative trades that caught fire briefly but showed little structural volume beneath the surface. PUNDLE, NILA, and EVA also made strong moves, each up 90–120%, reflecting the short-term speculative rotation.

More established names that caught upside included TON (+13.8%), XDC (+11.4%), QUBIC (+19.7%), and ZBCN (+25.7%). REKT, TRIBE, and KTA also registered clean multi-day gains, while SAROS, SUN, and IP rode secondary volume spikes that delivered modest gains.

On the downside, a large cluster of recent winners reversed sharply. TKX fell over 42%, leading the weekly losers, followed closely by USELESS, FARTCOIN, and CVX, all down 28–31%. BONK, which had surged earlier in the month, dropped another 27.6% as meme coins cooled broadly. SYRUP, DEEP, and WEMIX also gave up gains, highlighting how unforgiving the market is toward overstretched breakouts.

Names like PEPE, TIA, and JUP—all previously strong trending tokens—also pulled back 15–17% on the week, while others like AXL, BEAM, NEAR, and CRV were caught in the broader risk-off tone. Even strong narratives like RENDER and KAS didn’t escape the rotation out of high-beta tokens, each losing around 15%.

Overall, it was a defensive week. Capital briefly flirted with risk early on but failed to sustain momentum—especially in alt L1s and meme-heavy segments. The majors are consolidating, narratives are thinner, and rotation remains short-lived. Until ETH or BTC takes leadership decisively, expect more of this two-way volatility and sector churn.

Mindshare

Over the past 7 days, the market has been defined more by shifting attention than by decisive action. ETH continues to hover beneath its cycle highs, while broader altcoins remain in limbo—caught between strong structural setups and a lack of clear conviction. In this environment, attention is the alpha, and smart money is carefully rotating between themes, watching what sticks.

Nansen’s smart money token popularity tracker gives a clear view of where narrative traction is building. In the last week, we’ve seen a blend of familiar names and fast-rotating narratives. Tokens like Fartcoin, GP, and MEMECOIN have held strong narrative ground, while others like ZORA, URANUS, and ENA have experienced sharp bursts of attention that quickly faded. This fast-moving rotation reflects a market still searching for leadership. Attention is shifting quickly—capital is scouting aggressively, but not committing heavily.

Meanwhile, assets like LINK and ETH remained relatively stable in narrative share, but haven’t seen the kind of momentum that would signal a true alt season ignition. The broader market seems to be waiting—watching ETH’s price structure and ETF inflows, but hesitant to act before a breakout becomes undeniable.

From the ChainEdge attention heatmap, we see a clearer glimpse into the week’s rotating narratives. One standout? TROLL. It’s quietly risen in attention across multiple days, and been one of the recent major breakout coins. Alongside it, CHILLHOUSE, Tokabu, Ani, and KORI have popped in and out of visibility, showing short-lived surges in mindshare—but not yet the kind of sustained interest that characterizes major rotations.

In short: we’re still in the narrative scouting phase. Smart money is circling. Themes are forming. But with ETH holding just below a key breakout level, and macro uncertainty keeping volatility suppressed, the market hasn’t chosen its next dominant trade yet. Until it does, attention will continue to rotate—and memecoins, especially on Solana, are where that rotation is happening most visibly.

Smart Money Accumulation

Smart money accumulation across the Solana ecosystem this week reflects a sharp reshuffling of conviction. Many of last week’s most heavily held tokens have seen notable wallet exits, with clear signs of capital rotation as positioning adapts to emerging momentum plays.

Tokabu leads in terms of wallet count, now held by 13 top wallets—up modestly at +3.99%. While the net accumulation wasn’t explosive, it signals relative stickiness and ongoing positioning. In contrast, names like URANUS and LAUNCHCOIN—both previously among the top holdings—have seen smart money sharply unwind. URANUS holdings dropped -18.3% despite a still-sizeable $1.2M balance, while LAUNCHCOIN saw an even steeper decline of -29.34%, pointing to swift de-risking or rotation out of the trade entirely.

Lmeow and IMAGINE both saw significant outflows at -37.51% and -24.93% respectively. That kind of selloff from wallets often signals a breakdown in conviction or momentum. However, some tokens bucked the trend—memecoin stands out with a 69.79% jump in accumulation across 6 wallets, showing it’s gaining attention as a fresh play. Similarly, Fartcoin and GP posted healthy increases of +18.81% and +17.62%, with GP entering the top holdings despite being in only 5 wallets—suggesting high-conviction sizing.

The outsized reductions in previously crowded positions and the rise of lower-cap plays with strong percentage accumulation signal that capital is becoming more opportunistic—and willing to pivot quickly.

Smart money accumulation across the EVM ecosystem over the past week reflects a steady—but increasingly selective—hunt for conviction plays. In contrast to the Solana rotation, top wallet activity here leans more toward layered reaccumulation than sharp exits or sweeping reshuffles.

One of the clearest signals of persistent smart money conviction is PEPE, which—despite a modest +0.31% gain this week—is held across 5 top wallets with a massive 2.56T tokens, valued at $26.88M. It’s not just this week’s uptick that stands out: accumulation in PEPE has been building quietly over the past several months, positioning it as a long-term anchor in multiple smart money portfolios. While new positions may not be aggressive, the dollar exposure alone signals conviction hasn’t wavered.

Mog (+48.59%) and JOE (+150.81%) both saw meaningful wallet count expansions, suggesting they're back on radars. Mog continues to thrive on volatility, and JOE’s jump—now held in 4 wallets with $108.31K in total balance—indicates a renewed bet on its memetic stickiness. Similarly, KIBSHI recorded a +279% increase in wallet holdings, a sharp signal that early capital is moving in ahead of broader awareness.

Other names like BOBO (+61.03%, $73.07K) and SHRUB (+10.35%, $73.30K) also returned to favor this week—perhaps as smaller bets positioned for potential blow-off legs in a broader memecoin wave. Meanwhile, SBET (+11.2%, $207.91K) and COCORO (+4.76%, $105.73K) showed quiet but firm signs of continuation plays. Only CULT posted a small weekly reduction (-2.47%) across 6 wallets, even though it still holds a sizable presence at $336.26K. 

Overall, while there’s no frenzy here, smart money is still positioning. PEPE stands out as the core EVM anchor by sheer dollar size, while smaller bets rotate in and out as capital scouts for the next meme-led breakout.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀