Markets Hold Breath as Fed Rate Cuts Loom

GM Anon!

What a week — equities at new highs, jobless claims flashing stress, and crypto grinding through compressed ranges while whales keep shuffling bags. BTC is steady near $110K, ETH’s staking queue just hit a 2-year record, and Solana treasuries are soaking up flows. Meanwhile, alts are as chaotic as ever — PUMP ripped, BONK slipped, and new narratives like CARDS and Base memes are stealing the spotlight.

Plenty to dig into — let’s break it down. 🚀

TLDR

• S&P 500 hit new highs as jobless claims rose; yields eased, keeping risk-on alive.

• BTC held ~$110K with steady institutional demand but stayed in tight ranges.

• ETH staking queue hit a 2-year high (~860K ETH), exchange supply at 3-year lows.

• SOL saw treasury inflows and smart money rotated sharply between meme plays.

• BNB and TON gained from new treasury allocations ($33M and $100M).

• Meme action split: PUMP ripped higher, BONK faded, REKT/Mitch gained traction.

• Solana smart money trimmed Tokabu, SPARK, LAUNCHCOIN while piling into CARDS.

• EVM smart money dominated by Base memes — AVM ($4.53M) and NEX ($2.94M) led inflows.

Market Update

Markets stayed lively this week with macro and crypto headlines colliding. In equities, the S&P 500 closed at fresh all-time highs, even as U.S. jobless claims climbed to their highest since June and the 10-year yield slipped to its lowest since April. Trump warned of “fairly substantial” chip tariffs ahead, while Nvidia agreed to pay $1.5B to rent back its own chips. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury is accelerating buybacks, adding another layer of liquidity support.

In crypto, BTC bounced ahead of the jobs report, hovering near $110K as traders weighed compressed ranges against heavy institutional demand. Strategy bought $449M BTC, Metaplanet added $112M while preparing a $3.8B preferred stock raise, and Sora Ventures pledged $1B for fresh allocation. Still, caution lingers with whales shifting capital — large BTC wallets continue rotating into ETH.

Ethereum drew the biggest spotlight. An ICO-era participant moved $646M ETH to stake, Bitmine bought $358M, and BMNR added 17K ETH this week alone, 39K in total. At the same time, the ETH Foundation is selling 10K ETH, while ETHZilla will deploy $100M with EtherFi. Supply on exchanges hit a three-year low, staking queues reached two-year highs, and Hong Kong’s Yungfeng Financial scooped up $44M ETH.

Other majors were active too. DFDV bought $40M SOL, as Solana continued to attract treasury allocations. CEA purchased $33M BNB, while AlphaTON launched a $100M TON treasury and SUI Group snapped up 20M SUI. On the regulatory side, the SEC outlined plans to revamp crypto policy and is studying quantum-safe rules, the UK introduced stricter AML guidelines, South Korea capped lending rates at 20% while banning leveraged loans, and EU lawmakers pushed back on the digital euro.

On the corporate front, Coinbase announced Mag7 + Crypto index futures and reiterated ambitions to have half of its code written by AI this year. Gemini is targeting a $2.2B IPO valuation while also raising up to $361M alongside Figure Tech’s $526M IPO plans. US Bancorp resumed crypto custody, HK’s Fosun tokenized $328M in stocks, and SmartGold rolled out $1.6B of tokenized gold for U.S. IRAs.

Altcoins and memes produced their usual fireworks. ONDO led with plans for 100+ tokenized stocks, HYPE hit all-time highs for monthly fees at $100M, and WLFI launched at $25B with a revenue-backed buyback plan. On the meme side, PUMP reached $4.6B market cap with $12M buybacks last week, REKT partnered with Faze Esports alongside a new $2M token treasury from GameSquare, and Mitch’s creator coin quickly hit $30M.

CleanCore raised $175M to seed a DOGE treasury, and Rex-Osprey revealed the first DOGE ETF in the pipeline. Pumpfun’s new Project Ascend spiked creator fees, while Kaito launched “Information Market” leaderboards. Infrastructure kept evolving with Rabby integrating Hyperliquid and Linea launching a 1B rewards program.

NFTs weren’t left behind — Pudgy Penguins announced integration with OpenSea, while traditional prediction markets also made noise as Kalshi set a record for most bet on a single NFL game.

The broader theme is clear: while BTC hovers in tight ranges near $110K, ETH is pulling liquidity with record staking flows, exchange supply lows, and relentless treasury bids. SOL, BNB, and TON are building institutional treasuries of their own, while memes and RWAs keep fueling speculative edges. Macro still drives the backdrop — with yields easing and equities at record highs, crypto looks poised for another decisive move very soon

Market Data Points

Chainalysis’ 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index shows India, the U.S., and Pakistan leading global adoption, followed by Vietnam and Brazil. The report highlights that APAC drove much of the momentum with 69% year-over-year growth in on-chain transactions, powered by India, Vietnam, and Pakistan, while Latin America followed closely with 63% growth. 

India ranked #1 across every category—from retail and DeFi activity to institutional flows—highlighting its dominance in global adoption, with the U.S. close behind thanks to strong institutional and DeFi participation.

Ethereum’s staking entry queue has surged to its highest level in two years, with over 860K ETH (~$3.7B) now waiting to be staked. This marks the strongest demand since the Shanghai upgrade in 2023 and reflects growing institutional participation alongside rising confidence in the network. 

Everstake notes that a mix of higher ETH prices, low gas fees, and corporate treasury inflows are fueling the buildup. At the same time, the exit queue has eased from recent highs, easing fears of heavy sell pressure. With 35.7M ETH staked (~31% of supply) and treasuries continuing to accumulate, Ethereum’s staking momentum appears firmly on the rise.

Over 90% of all addresses remain in profit. Short-term SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) briefly dipped below 1.0 in late August, meaning some new entrants capitulated. Long-term holders, however, stayed firm. Historically, these flushes transfer coins from weak hands to strong hands, strengthening the base of the market.

Less than 15% of the BTC supply now sits on exchanges, the lowest share since 2017. Coins are being pulled into cold storage or custodial vaults, leaving fewer liquid coins available to sell. This steady drain has been happening all year, even during price rallies, showing that buyers are not looking to flip but to hold.

Despite a strong run earlier this summer, Bonkfun’s revenues have dropped off sharply, losing the momentum that briefly put it on the map. In contrast, Pumpfun has firmly reclaimed its place at the top, once again dominating launchpad revenues with no serious competition in sight.

Majors & Memes

The majors were mixed this week. BTC held firm with a +2.2% gain above $110K, while ETH slipped -0.9% and BNB eased -1.3%. SOL stayed flat at -0.7%, and DOGE stood out with +1.9%. TRX (-2.2%) and XRP (-0.3%) drifted lower, while ADA managed a small +0.9%.

The biggest moves came from mid-caps. MemeCore (M) ripped +203%, leading the pack, followed by Story Protocol (IP) (+34.6%), Pump.fun (PUMP) (+33.9%), Sky (SKY) (+16.9%), Ethena (ENA) (+16.4%), and POL (ex-MATIC) (+16.3%). Legacy names like BCH (+14.2%) and OKB (+6.1%) also gained ground.

Losers were spread across DeFi, memes and infra. Bonk (BONK) fell -7%, while AAVE (-4.6%), LINK (-4%), and UNI (-2.6%) saw steady selling. HBAR, KAS, VET, and ETC also closed in the red.

Overall, BTC led the majors while rotation into select mid-caps drove sharp gains — but profit-taking hit DeFi and memes, showing the market’s still choppy under the surface.

Mindshare

Over the past week, mindshare remained concentrated in the majors with BTC (6%), ETH (5%), and SOL (4%) dominating discussion, even as they all slipped in performance. This signals traders are still fixated on core assets as the backdrop for broader sentiment.

Beyond that, WLFI (3%) carved out notable attention, while PUMP (2%) and TRUMP (2%) kept visibility high. The mix shows that while majors anchor the narrative, selective memes and new narratives continue to capture space at the edges.

Smart money mindshare in memes shifted dramatically, with CARDS emerging as the clear leader. After starting the week with only modest visibility, it surged mid-to-late week and ended up capturing the bulk of attention, effectively crowding out smaller narratives. 

Names like Tokabu and TROLL held steady through most of the week, maintaining consistent slices of attention, but both gave way once CARDS accelerated. 67 and URANUS also managed to stay relevant, though at lower levels, reflecting ongoing interest without fresh surges. Meanwhile, secondary players such as BETLY, WILD, and PICKLE saw only brief flashes of visibility before fading.

Overall, the picture indicates a market that began the week spread across multiple meme plays but consolidated quickly into a single dominant narrative. If this pattern holds, CARDS could act as the main magnet for flows, while older leaders like Tokabu and TROLL will need renewed momentum to stay competitive.

Smart Money Accumulation

Smart money accumulation across the Solana ecosystem over the past week indicates a market still in rotation, with conviction unevenly distributed across tokens. The sharpest outflows came from prior leaders: Tokabu (-18.41%, $896.28K), SPARK (-34.76%, $558.26K), and LAUNCHCOIN (-41.05%, $469.74K), all of which saw notable trimming as wallets rotated elsewhere. 67 also pulled back (-13.29%, $489.23K), reinforcing the view that capital has been exiting some of the longer-held positions.

The standout new arrival is CARDS, which entered smart money holdings this week and quickly established itself with ~$868.85K in value. This matches with its surge in mindshare, highlighting how both capital and attention are converging here. Meanwhile, CLIPPY (+34.37%, $272.49K), dollo (+11.92%, $207.25K), and KLED (+7.33%, $766.76K) drew fresh inflows, though at smaller scale compared to the larger names. URANUS also saw a modest gain (+3.74%, $520.63K), holding its place as a steady mid-tier allocation.

Overall, the data suggests smart money is not leaving Solana but rather cycling aggressively — reducing exposure in older trades while concentrating into newer narratives like CARDS and selectively boosting mid-cap plays. This kind of choppy accumulation backdrop signals a market in limbo.

Smart money accumulation across the EVM ecosystem over the past week points to the overwhelming dominance of Base memes, which continue to attract the bulk of attention and capital. NEX held steady despite a slight trim (-0.67%), still commanding around $2.94M, while AVM surged into prominence with a massive $4.53M allocation — one of the largest across all tracked wallets. New names such as GROK25B ($975.34K) and GROK82E ($668.11K) further reinforced how quickly fresh Base-linked tokens are capturing smart money interest.

Smaller allocations also saw movement, with Block jumping +282.47% to $249.74K, signaling sharp conviction shifts week-over-week. Meanwhile, more established memes like APU (+6.71%, $338.31K) and BITCOIN ($415.72K) showed steadier positioning. Mog ($207.55K) and SHRUB ($130.89K) were largely flat, highlighting that capital rotation has been concentrated in Base names rather than spreading broadly across the EVM meme landscape.

Data indicates that Base memes aren’t just leading but dominating smart money allocations. Multi-million dollar positions clustered in a few tokens suggest rising conviction, but also concentration risk — a setup that could deliver big upside if momentum persists, or sharp pullbacks if flows reverse.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀