October Ignition

GM Anon!

After a choppy September that kept traders second-guessing, October is opening on a much stronger footing. BTC is smashing key levels, ETH demand is outpacing exchange supply, and BNB surged into new highs to lead majors. SOL remains a standout with DeFi flows surging, while smart money is leaning back into selective meme plays. Momentum feels like it’s building again. Let’s dive in.

TLDR

• BTC continues climbing, holding well above the $120K zone.

• ETH gained ground, with exchange supply at multi-year lows and staking demand heating up.

• BNB broke into new all-time highs, the standout among majors.

• SOL stayed strong with DeFi flows backing momentum.

• Institutional demand remains steady, with big BTC and ETH purchases still coming through.

• Alts rotated higher, with privacy coins, L1s, and memes among the strongest movers.

• Weak spots showed up in recent hype names, with several high-beta tokens giving back gains.

Market Update

Markets are moving through a complicated mix of macro tailwinds and political risks. The Fed’s recent rate cut remains the biggest anchor for sentiment, supporting risk assets despite the drag of a U.S. government shutdown that threatens to delay some regulatory timelines, including approvals for L1 ETFs. At the same time, safe havens are flashing bright: gold just hit its 39th ATH of 2025, while silver has gone parabolic, showing investors are hedging even as equities trade near highs.

Crypto is back in rally mode. BTC is nearing its ATH, boosted by $2.4B in ETF inflows over the past four days. The latest daily prints show $627M flowing into BTC products and another $304M into ETH ETFs, lifting AUM to $129.9B for BTC and $21.8B for ETH. These strong inflows follow one of the heaviest redemption weeks in months, highlighting how quickly institutional positioning can flip. Even with a government shutdown in play, crypto ETF flows remain very strong, keeping sentiment constructive.

Among majors, BNB continues to lead the pack, hitting another ATH and establishing itself as the top-performing L1 this month. ETH successfully tested its Fusaka upgrade, scheduled to go live later this year, while SUI set an ATH in TVL and announced plans for two new stablecoins. 

Solana remains in focus too: Visionsys revealed plans for a $2B SOL DAT, Phantom launched a native stablecoin, and Republic said it will tokenize Animoca equity on Solana, reinforcing institutional interest. Avalanche activity remains strong, with Avalanche Treasury Co. merging with a SPAC, while ASTER rebounded to an $18B FDV after its Singapore event.

DeFi and perps trading are evolving rapidly. Perp DEX market share continues to shift away from HYPE, even as the sector deepens: Injective launched pre-IPO perp futures, FalconX rolled out 24×7 options, and CME confirmed its own crypto perps will trade 24/7 from 2026. Meanwhile, Lighter launched its ETH L2 mainnet, adding to the scaling landscape, and DoubleZero debuted at a $5B FDV, signaling how aggressively tokenized projects are being capitalized.

Stablecoins and tokenization remain front and center. Visa is testing stablecoins for international transfers, Tether is teaming up with Rumble to boost USAT adoption, and Kazakhstan launched a national crypto reserve alongside stablecoin initiatives. In the private market, WLFI outlined plans to tokenize RWAs and pair them with USD1, while MEXC boosted its Ethena investment to $66M. Tokenisation will consume the financial system, said Robinhood’s Vlad Tenev, reflecting the growing institutional consensus.

Corporates and treasuries remain buyers. Metaplanet purchased $616M BTC, while BTCW committed $100M, continuing the wave of listed-company accumulation. Strategy bought $22M BTC and saw its stock jump 17% in five days, with executives confident they can avoid CAMT tax. BitMine added $963M ETH, VivoPower raised $19M equity to buy XRP, and Thumzup invested $2.5M into DogeHash Technologies. Buybacks are back too, with Sharps Tech planning $100M.

Regulation and politics remain active. The SEC-CFTC turf war is officially over, giving clearer oversight lines, while Commissioner Pierce said the agency is willing to engage with token issuers. The Senate will soon hold hearings on crypto taxes, and Wisconsin is weighing licenses for crypto firms. 

In the UK, authorities are pushing to keep £5B in seized BTC, while U.S. regulators opened the door for state trusts to act as crypto custodians. Europe is preparing to approve various L1 ETFs, while Vanguard is considering offering crypto products. Globally, the UAE, Canada, and Australia continue to push forward on licensing and stablecoin regulation, though the U.S. shutdown risks slowing timelines.

Exchanges and ventures are reshaping fast. Binance launched a “crypto-as-a-service” product even as its X account was hacked, while Kraken expanded into equity offerings and Nomura’s unit in Japan will begin crypto trading. Bullish launched U.S. spot trading, Polymarket is preparing to relaunch domestically, and Coinbase funded a study aimed at poverty alleviation. Meanwhile, tokenized stock trading is coming to Telegram, highlighting the consumer-facing pivot. NFT markets also saw action: Moonbirds hit 4 ETH, Punk Strategy sold its second Punk, and Larva Labs announced the final Art Blocks Curated drop.

On the speculative side, memes and high-beta tokens remained volatile. PNKSTR pumped 50% in a single day to $140M, TIBBIR hit $300M ATH, and BNB meme 4 surged to $60M. Meanwhile, HYPSTR launched with a Hypurr NFT strategy, and NodeStrategy teased a BTC product. Still, pain remains in weaker plays: Tron Inc. is down 85% from its peak amid DAT slumps, showing how fragile narratives can unravel quickly.

Finally, the longer arc of adoption continues. Deutsche Bank suggested BTC could join central bank reserves by 2030. The cumulative effect is clear: even with macro noise and shutdown risk, crypto’s institutionalization is accelerating — ETF flows are strong, corporates are buyers, stablecoins and tokenization rails keep expanding, and the long-term narrative is intact.

Market Data Points

L2 activity over the past week has been led by Arbitrum, which recorded the strongest net inflows among major chains, far outpacing competitors. Smaller positive flows were also observed on Starknet, Unichain, Sui, Berachain, and zkSync Era, pointing to steady capital rotation into newer ecosystems. On the other side, Ethereum registered the deepest outflows, joined by consistent capital exits from Hyperliquid, Base, Solana, Optimism, BNB Chain, and Avalanche.

Plasma has erupted onto the DeFi scene, vaulting past $5.4B in TVL within days of launch — a surge that puts it in the same league as established L1s. The chain’s pitch is simple but powerful: gas-free stablecoin transfers, EVM compatibility, and yield-heavy integrations with protocols like Aave and Ethena. Backed by exchange listings and early liquidity campaigns, Plasma has quickly become a magnet for capital.

Starknet is taking a decisive step into Bitcoin finance. At Token2049, the L 2 unveiled BTCFi on Starknet, introducing trustless BTC staking, new cross-chain integrations with partners like WBTC, Threshold, and LayerZero, and a 100M STRK incentive program to jumpstart lending and yield strategies.

RWAs have exploded to $31.7B in value as of September 30, 2025, highlighting one of the fastest-growing narratives in crypto. Private credit dominates the mix at $17.4B, followed by $7.9B in U.S. Treasuries and over $2B each in institutional alternative funds and commodities. The rapid acceleration since early 2025 reflects both institutional adoption and the hunt for yield, with crypto rails increasingly being used to access traditional fixed-income and credit markets.

Lighter, a decentralized derivatives exchange, has quickly scaled since opening its Ethereum L2 mainnet to the public. The platform now holds $854M in TVL, with $165B in 30-day perpetuals volume and open interest above $1.4B.

The exchange differentiates itself through zero-knowledge circuits that allow order matching, liquidations, and risk management to be verified on-chain while maintaining low-latency execution. This design is intended to narrow the performance gap between decentralized and centralized venues.

Majors & Memes

Majors carried strong momentum this week with across-the-board gains. BTC led the way, climbing +11.6% to hold firmly above $122K, while ETH added +12.2% and sits near $4.5K. BNB was the standout among large caps, ripping +23.5% to $1,180, while SOL followed with +15.3%. XRP posted +9.5%, and DOGE also impressed with +12.1%. ADA stayed in the green with +9.7%, though TRX lagged majors, barely positive at +1.1%. Overall, the top ten showed clear risk-on appetite, with strong closes across the board.

On the winners list, smaller caps stole headlines. ZEC exploded +128%, one of the biggest moves in the market. APT surged +31.4%, while PUMP added another +30.2% as memecoin momentum refuses to cool. LTC (+15.5%), XMR (+12.8%), and QNT (+12.5%) joined the rotation higher, while Solana-linked plays like JitoSOL (+14.8%) and BNSOL (+14.5%) rode network strength. Sector diversification was clear, with both privacy tokens and DeFi-linked assets rallying.

Losers were concentrated in high-beta and experimental names. Plasma (XPL) sank -29.4%, leading the declines, while MemeCore dropped -16.7%. MYX Finance slipped -14.8%, and Avantis (AVNT) fell -25.6%. Other smaller red prints included Pi Network (-3.4%), Flare (-2.4%), and WLFI (-3.3%), all reflecting profit-taking after earlier runs.

In short, majors are back in full swing with BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL driving strength, while select altcoins ripped higher. The losers list shows rotation out of recent hype plays, but overall market tone remains decisively bullish.

Mindshare

Attention in the meme sector shifted meaningfully over the last week, consolidating into fewer names while several mid-tier plays saw their mindshare erode.

TROLL remained a dominant anchor throughout the period, holding one of the largest and most consistent shares of attention. It’s the meme that continues to attract steady capital regardless of broader rotation, reinforcing its status as a conviction core in smart money positioning. CARDS was another standout, surging mid-week to capture a significant portion of mindshare. 

The strongest climber was SWITCH, which saw sharp gains in attention starting around September 28 and managed to sustain that strength into October. It’s clear that smart money rotated aggressively into SWITCH, making it one of the freshest conviction trades in the space.

SOMBRERO was the late-week surprise. After barely registering early on, it entered the leaderboard decisively into October, stealing share from fading plays like META and USX. Meanwhile, META and USX both saw notable declines. META started strong but lost significant ground after September 29, while USX dropped sharply after being one of the early leaders. Both now look more like legacy plays that are being trimmed in favor of newer bets.

Other names like LOOK kept a steady middle-tier presence — never dominating, but also not disappearing, showing they still hold a role in portfolios. MOG also managed to keep a visible footprint, fluctuating in size but never fully rotating out of the picture.

Smaller memes such as Block, Fartcoin, PMX, Pibble, ICM, OVPP, OPAL, ROY, TRWA, and KLED showed only brief or minor attention slices, likely reflecting optionality bets rather than true conviction plays.

Smart Money Accumulation

Smart money activity in the Solana meme ecosystem this week was anything but even — wallets leaned into a handful of plays while cutting back on others, signaling deliberate capital rotation rather than blanket risk-on exposure.

LAUNCHCOIN was the clear standout, with wallet counts rising to 12 and balances up +20.7% to $1.14M — the strongest accumulation trend across the sector. CLANKER also drew fresh bids (+10.4% to $156K), confirming that even smaller caps are still attracting smart money when conviction is high. At the larger end, Fartcoin remains one of the heaviest positions at $1.68M, though growth was muted (+0.8%), suggesting wallets are holding steady rather than adding.

The other side of the tape showed visible de-risking. 67 posted the sharpest reduction (-17.6%, now $268K), with Tokabu (-10.4%, $512K) and pibble (-6.5%, $331K) also seeing consistent trimming. SPARK, still sizeable at $1.03M, slipped slightly (-1.3%), pointing to measured rotation rather than capitulation. DUPE also bled (-7.5% to $163K), while CLIPPY flatlined with no new flows.

In short: wallets are consolidating into LAUNCHCOIN and a few secondary winners like CLANKER, while steadily paring back older names. This selective accumulation highlights a more cautious smart money stance — risk isn’t gone, it’s just waiting for the next overall market move.

Smart money activity across the EVM meme ecosystem showed a clear split — conviction holdings in majors stayed flat, while smaller, higher-beta names saw sharp trimming.

Big allocations like PEPE ( $25.9M), CULT ($338K), Mog ($231K), and BITCOIN ($425K) were unchanged on the week, signaling that wallets are keeping size in long-standing narratives but not adding fresh exposure. Similarly, mid-sized positions such as APU ($308K), Block ($222K), and SHRUB ($43K) held steady.

The pain was concentrated in selective cuts. BOOE saw the steepest reduction, down nearly -50% to just $82K, a decisive de-risking that suggests waning confidence in the trade. SPX slipped slightly (-0.04% to $280K), and TRWA saw a modest trim (-0.7% to $911K), the latter still one of the largest dollar balances despite the reduction.

The broader takeaway is that smart money within the EVM meme sector is consolidating around entrenched leaders like PEPE, CULT, and Mog, while aggressively cutting lower-conviction plays like BOOE.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀