Post-Fed Hangover, Quiet Accumulation

GM Anon!

It’s been another grind lower — volatility muted, sentiment in the gutter, and traders questioning why they still check charts every five minutes. But dull and directionless isn’t a permanent state. The macro backdrop is slowly tilting toward easier policy, even if the market refuses to believe it yet. QT wraps up December 1, the benchmark rate edges down to 3.75–4.00, and a 10–2 vote in favor of easing suggests more support is coming once the Fed stops pretending it’s undecided.

For now, patience is painful — but this kind of exhaustion rarely lasts. Let’s break down the week.

TLDR

• Fed cut 25 bps, QT ends Dec 1; split FOMC kept tone hawkish and crypto dipped.

• BoJ held, hinted hike; China PMIs hit 6-month low; U.S. eyed tariff cuts and a one-year Xi–Trump deal.

• Stocks hit ATH as Nvidia neared $5T; Apple touched $4T then pulled back; Amazon/Alphabet up, Meta –12%.

• BTC slid with long-term holders selling 62K BTC; France reportedly weighing a 2% supply buy.

• ETH: Fusaka final testnet; upgrade due Dec 3; $6M ICO wallet moved; BitMine +$166M; $200M ETH to Linea staking planned.

• SOL: huge day-1 ETF volumes; Bitwise did $70M+ on day 2; Fidelity reportedly close to a SOL ETF.

• Stablecoins: Visa added four; Western Union filed WUUSD and plans a SOL stablecoin; Circle tested Arc; Tether teed up USAT for Dec 2025; Indonesia plans a digital rupiah.

• Tokenization/access: Securitize SPAC + BNY Mellon fund; Ondo to BNB Chain; Nordea BTC-linked ETPs; Coinbase revenue +54%; Cryptocom seeks OCC charter; Revolut fee-free USD swaps; Rumble BTC tipping.

• Market structure: BNB Chain > Tron in active stablecoin users; stablecoin volume +43% YTD near $9T; fees skew to Hyperliquid (~40%) and BNB (>20%) as SOL frenzy cools.

Market Update

Macro and equities set a jittery backdrop this week. The Fed cut 25 bps and will end QT on December 1, but a divided FOMC on a December move left the tone hawkish, and crypto dumped on the nuance. Japan’s BoJ left rates unchanged while signaling a hike soon, China’s manufacturing fell to a six-month low, and Washington paired tariff reductions with talk of a one-year trade understanding between Xi and Trump.

Stocks still notched another ATH as Nvidia ripped — briefly touching a $5T handle in overnight trade — even as leadership stayed uneven: Amazon rallied on AI-driven cloud growth, Alphabet surged on earnings, Apple hit $4T before a pullback, and Meta slid 12% on heavier AI spend. The AI liquidity narrative remained loud with an OpenAI IPO floated at a $1T valuation, keeping risk appetite headline-sensitive into month-end.

Majors traded the policy read-through and positioning more than the print. BTC’s dip coincided with long-term holders selling 62K BTC, even as France was floated as considering accumulation equal to 2% of BTC supply. Ethereum’s path is execution and staking: the Fusaka upgrade is on final testnet and scheduled for December 3; an ICO-era wallet moved $6M ETH after eight years; BitMine kept buying with a $166M add; and Sharplink plans to stake $200M ETH on Linea. Solana’s institutional on-ramp broadened quickly with huge day-one SOL ETF volumes, Bitwise clearing $70M+ on day two, and reports that Fidelity is close on its own product.

Institutional rails and tokenisation kept pressing forward despite cautious risk. Visa added support for four stablecoins, Western Union filed a WUUSD trademark alongside its Solana plan, Circle began testing Arc, Tether outlined a USAT launch for December 2025, and Indonesia set out a digital-rupiah stablecoin. Nordea will offer BTC-linked synthetic ETPs, Coinbase printed a 54% revenue jump, Cryptocom is seeking an OCC federal bank charter, and Core Scientific shareholders blocked the $9B CoreWeave deal. 

Securitize moved to go public via a $1.25B SPAC and, with BNY Mellon, launched a tokenised fund; Ondo expanded tokenised securities to BNB Chain; the TRUMP issuer agreed to buy Republic; and Rumble prepared BTC tipping as Revolut rolled out USD stablecoin swaps with no fees. Ant Group registered crypto trademarks, Jamie Dimon conceded “crypto is real,” and SBF resurfaced to claim FTX was never insolvent.

Sector activity stayed busy under the hood. Base’s token was flagged by JP Morgan as potentially worth $34B, the x402 payments narrative for AI agents gathered steam, and TAO led AI coins with a halving just over 40 days out. MegaETH’s token sale was oversubscribed by 28x; Monad revealed user allocations of MON; MetaMask launched Season 1 of rewards; World Liberty prepared an 8.4M WLFI airdrop, and Stable advanced to Phase 2 of its pre-deposit campaign. Prediction and markets infrastructure widened: Polymarket may return to the U.S. in November, Truth Social launched prediction markets, Kalshi added SUI deposits, and dYdX mapped a U.S. entry by end-2025.

Net-net: the post-FOMC tone left sentiment in the gutter and crypto leaning lower, but the pipeline of ETFs, stablecoin rails, tokenised assets, and corporate actions suggests adoption — not macro alone — will dictate the next sustained leg when risk finds its footing.

Market Data Points

Stablecoin activity is shifting fast. BNB Chain has now overtaken Tron as the leading network by active stablecoin users over the past two quarters. Meanwhile, quarterly stablecoin-adjusted volume is up roughly 43% year-to-date, closing in on $9T. Ethereum remains the liquidity backbone, driving nearly half of that total flow.

Hyperliquid and BNB Chain are now dominating L1 fee capture — a sharp reversal from earlier in the year when Solana controlled over half of all major L1 fees. As Solana’s memecoin frenzy faded after the TRUMP token peak, traders chased higher-yield activity where derivatives drive fee growth. 

Hyperliquid has surged to over 40% of fees, with BNB Chain above 20% thanks to its exchange-integrated funnel. Unless Solana finds another breakout native app or a renewed speculative wave, fee share looks set to remain decisively skewed toward derivatives-heavy ecosystems.

Prediction markets are increasingly coalescing around two major hubs — Polymarket and Kalshi.Through most of 2024, Polymarket completely dominated the field, controlling nearly all weekly trading volume as it became the go-to venue for retail and crypto-native speculation. But since the start of 2025, Kalshi has quietly and consistently closed the gap. By October, it’s posting its strongest market share yet, a sign that regulated prediction trading is finally finding its footing in the U.S.

What’s driving this change is a clear bifurcation of user bases. Polymarket still thrives on cultural and political narratives that play well with a crypto audience — fast-moving, meme-driven, and global. Kalshi, on the other hand, benefits from a growing wave of institutional and U.S.-based traders seeking compliant exposure to event risk, particularly around macro data, elections, and policy outcomes.

Ethena and Hyperliquid have been two of the most closely watched DeFi scale-ups this year, each proving there’s real demand for alternative collateral models and on-chain derivatives infrastructure. That’s why the recent cooling in October is notable. Ethena’s TVL has come off its highs, sliding back toward the $10B area after an exceptionally strong run fueled by robust fee generation and a clear product-market fit. Hyperliquid, meanwhile, also saw a moderation in inflows following months of consistent growth.

This isn’t an unwind tied to structural weakness — it’s positioning and capital rotation after an overheated period. Both ecosystems still maintain deep liquidity, healthy usage, and expanding revenue foundations. In other words: these are platforms that have already earned institutional attention, and pullbacks of this size now carry informational weight. The question over the coming weeks is whether fresher, stickier capital begins to re-enter as broader market conditions stabilize.

Majors & Memes

Majors traded heavy this week as uncertainty crept back into the market. BTC and ETH both edged lower over the past seven days, unable to sustain early strength as sentiment cooled. Powell’s message that future rate cuts are not assured, has left markets stuck in a wait-and-see phase. With liquidity drivers unclear, BTC hovered near $109K and ETH slipped slightly, while BNB and SOL also pulled back in a controlled manner. DOGE and TRX followed the risk-off tone, and ADA weakened further as rotation away from lower-beta majors persisted.

Performance strength came almost entirely from selective narratives. Figure Heloc led with a triple-digit surge, while ZEC, Trump, TAO, Pi Network, and HBAR all posted notable upside as capital chased niche momentum rather than broad market direction. These gains reflect rotation — not renewed bull conviction.

Declines were concentrated in recent high-beta winners and ecosystem bets. Ethena, Story Protocol, Gate, OKB, Mantle, and VeChain saw sharp retracement, while APEPE, SNX, and Plasma also extended losses. The pattern points to positioning cleanup: profit-taking, leverage reduction, and a pause on speculative exposure while macro signals remain muddled.

In short, crypto is navigating limbo — not bearish enough for capitulation, not bullish enough for a run. Spot prices are consolidating, winners are isolated, and traders are waiting for a decisive cue from macro before expanding risk again.

Smart Money Accumulation

Smart money activity in the Solana meme ecosystem this week showed clear rotation back into risk, but in a highly selective manner. Wallets pressed into a few high-momentum names while trimming older positions that have stalled.

BELIEVE was the runaway standout — wallet counts climbed to 14 and balances exploded over +300% to roughly $786K, making it the strongest conviction add across the sector. Tokabu also flipped back into favor with double-digit balance growth and a healthy increase in wallet positioning, signaling renewed appetite for familiar plays. UMBRA saw one of the sharpest percentage gains, up nearly +60%, even if from a smaller base — a classic speculative rotation when confidence begins to return. URANUS and Fartcoin posted steady inflows as well, reinforcing their roles as liquid mid-tier conviction holds.

On the de-risking side, activity was more controlled than last week but still visible. SPARK took the hardest trim — balances fell over -20%, reflecting fading momentum in what was previously a top allocation. DUPE also slid modestly, while KLED eased slightly despite still being one of the larger dollar positions in the group. These reductions point to profit-taking and rotation rather than any broad collapse in confidence.

Bottom line: Solana smart money isn’t going all-in — but it is redeploying into winners with clearer momentum. BELIEVE has quickly become the primary risk-on vehicle, with secondary flows chasing emerging heat in names like UMBRA. Weak hands are being cut, strong narratives are being reinforced — classic positioning ahead of a potential market recovery despite current sentiment and conditions.

Smart money positioning across the EVM ecosystem this week was extremely muted — wallets largely held their ground, signaling caution and a wait-and-see stance rather than any meaningful rotation.

Most major positions — PEPE (~$25.8M), CULT (~$338K), BITCOIN (~$425K), SHRUB, TRWA — saw no changes at all. Allocations remain firmly intact, suggesting conviction hasn’t been shaken, but there’s also no appetite to scale higher until market direction becomes clearer.

Only a couple of names registered movement, and even those were limited. OVPP drew a small bump in exposure, enough to be noticeable but not enough to call it a new trend. Meanwhile, APU saw light trimming and Mog took the only real hit with a sharper reduction.

Bottom line: smart money on EVM memes is staying flat, protecting its biggest bets without extending risk. Traders aren’t fleeing the sector — they’re simply sitting tight, waiting for the next strong signal before redeploying capital.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀