Post FOMC Reset, Structure Still Forming

GM Anon!

BTC is still stuck in a tight compression range, fading attempts to reclaim the low $94Ks and trading more like a positioning market than a clean trend. Post FOMC, the Fed’s message landed closer to neutral, which capped follow through in risk and left BTC oscillating between range support and resistance while leverage stays contained. Today we’ll break down what to watch going forward now that the event risk is behind us.

Let’s dive in!

TLDR

• Post FOMC, liquidity looks supportive but not accelerating as the Fed cut 25 bps while signaling policy is near neutral.

• Risk markets held up well with equities at highs and gold and silver breaking out, pointing to continued hard asset demand.

• BTC remains range bound between the high $80Ks and low $90Ks, failing to reclaim the $93.5K–$94K zone so far.

• ETF flows show caution, not stress, with modest outflows and no signs of capitulation.

• Derivatives positioning is clean, with open interest near $28B and funding close to flat after the leverage reset.

• On-chain accumulation is strong, with over 75K BTC added by accumulator addresses in early December.

• Momentum is stabilizing but still early, with a weekly reclaim above $93.5K–$94K needed for confirmation.

• Focus shifts to confirmation and flows, with upside dependent on a clean range breakout and downside risk reopening only below $85K–$87K.

Post FOMC Market Update

Liquidity supportive, confirmation still missing

Markets have largely digested this week’s FOMC, and the picture that’s emerged is one of support rather than acceleration. The Fed delivered a 25 bp cut, but the details mattered more than the headline. Three dissents and guidance pointing to policy near neutral capped enthusiasm, reinforcing the idea that the easing cycle is transitioning into a slower, more deliberate phase rather than a fresh liquidity surge.

Despite that, broader risk markets responded constructively. U.S. equity futures pushed higher after the Dow and S&P 500 printed new all time highs, while commodities continued to lead. Gold extended its advance and silver broke to fresh records, now sitting at its most overbought levels in decades. That combination suggests liquidity is still present in the system and increasingly expressing itself through hard assets rather than high beta risk.

China added to the backdrop by signaling modest stimulus expectations for 2026, reinforcing the idea of steady global liquidity rather than aggressive reflation. The Fed’s announcement of a $40B bond purchase program aimed at reserve management also helps anchor near term financial conditions, even if it stops short of being a full easing signal.

BTC Remains Trapped in Compression

BTC continues to trade as a positioning market rather than a pure macro expression. Price remains stuck in a familiar consolidation range between the high $80Ks and low $90Ks, with repeated failures to reclaim the $93.5K to $94K zone keeping upside momentum contained. The structure is stabilizing, with higher lows holding since the late November flush, but confirmation is still absent.

ETF flows reinforce that interpretation. Recent prints show modest outflows rather than stress, with BTC ETFs down roughly $77.5M and ETH around $44.4M. These are not capitulation numbers, but they do reflect caution and short term de-risking rather than aggressive accumulation through these vehicles.

Derivatives positioning looks notably cleaner than it did heading into November. Open interest is holding near $28B without rebuilding aggressively, and funding rates across venues remain close to flat. That combination points to a market that has largely flushed excess leverage and is now waiting for a catalyst rather than forcing direction.

Accumulation Continues Under Surface

While price churns, on-chain behavior remains quietly constructive. Accumulator addresses added more than 75K BTC in early December, including a single day absorption of roughly 40K BTC. Total holdings for these entities now sit near 315K BTC, and their activity appears largely insensitive to short term ETF noise or momentum swings.

Historically, this kind of steady accumulation during sideways price action has acted as a medium term support mechanism rather than an immediate upside trigger. It does not guarantee a breakout, but it reduces the probability of sharp downside unless broader liquidity conditions deteriorate.

Momentum indicators are beginning to stabilize after a prolonged negative phase, but they remain early. A sustained weekly reclaim of the $93.5K to $94K region is still the key signal that consolidation is resolving higher rather than extending.

Macro Context Still Favors Hard Assets

The macro backdrop remains broadly supportive. Global M2 has pushed to new highs near $130T, driven largely by China, reinforcing longer term liquidity tailwinds. The fact that gold and silver are making new highs alongside strong equity performance suggests this is not a risk off environment, but one where capital is selectively expressing itself.

BTC’s relative underperformance versus metals highlights the current phase. Liquidity is present, but crypto remains sensitive to flows, positioning, and confirmation rather than leading the macro trade outright.

What Matters From Here

BTC remains range bound, low leverage, and coiled. The market is no longer in a trending down phase, but it has not yet earned a trend higher.

What to watch next:
• A sustained reclaim of the $93.5K to $94K zone on a weekly basis would mark the first meaningful improvement in structure.
• A loss of the $85K to $87K support area would reopen downside risk and signal renewed stress.
• A breakout accompanied by controlled funding and gradually rising open interest would be healthier than a fast squeeze driven by leverage.

With FOMC behind us, the focus shifts back to flows, confirmation, and patience. Liquidity is building in the background, strong hands are accumulating, and hard assets are leading. BTC’s next move is less about macro permission and more about whether it can convert this compression into a clean structural breakout.

Market Data Points

Over the past month, net flows rotated toward L2s and a handful of high-beta ecosystems. Arbitrum led by a wide margin, with Starknet, Sei, Base, Solana, and Polygon PoS also positive; even Bitcoin and Ink printed small inflows. On the other side, outflows were concentrated in Hyperliquid and large L1 stacks like Ethereum and BNB Chain.

CryptoQuant’s trader realized price bands frame BTC as range-bound with a defined upward path. The current profile leaves room to ~$99K, with the next meaningful caps at $102K and $112K. Acceptance above the mid-band into $99K would signal spot demand outweighing recent supply, while follow-through through $102K and a hold above it would shift the near-term bias constructive toward $112K.

ETH is back to its old rhythm: accumulation, then a clean break on both ETH/BTC and ETH/USD. It reclaimed the prior range high (around the 0.03 area on ETH/BTC), and ETH/USD is lifting out of its sideways band in sync. That combo with relative strength and absolute trend turning up together signals more than a bounce. Hold above those reclaimed tops, and you’ve got the start of an ETH-led leg.

Binance “shrimp” activity looks quiet. CryptoQuant’s <1 BTC deposit inflows show the 30-day average sitting far below the 2021–23 highs, and within the ETF era the aggregate in the highlighted window fell from about 1,056 BTC to ~411 BTC. That points to muted retail participation on Binance despite higher prices. Spot demand appears to be coming from elsewhere, while exchange-native retail flow remains subdued, keeping the tape cautious rather than euphoric.

Strategy printed a big buy, adding 10,624 BTC for ~$962.7M at ~$90,615 per coin. That lifts total holdings to 660,624 BTC, accumulated for ~$49.35B at an average ~$74,696, with a reported 24.7% BTC yield YTD.

Majors & Memes

The majors delivered a mixed but generally stable week, with price action reflecting consolidation rather than strong directional conviction. BTC edged modestly higher over seven days, holding its ground after recent volatility but failing to show a decisive breakout. ETH outperformed on a relative basis with a stronger weekly gain, extending its rebound and showing firmer momentum than BTC. BNB also posted a small advance, while SOL managed a mild recovery after earlier weakness. XRP finished slightly higher but remained choppy, while DOGE drifted marginally lower. TRX was the clear underperformer among large caps, posting a notable weekly decline and continuing its recent downtrend.

Away from the majors, leadership rotated into a mix of selective narratives and higher beta names. ZEC stood out as one of the strongest large movers, posting a sharp double-digit weekly gain on heavy volume, placing it firmly at the top of the leaderboard. MemeCore, Canton, and Mantle also delivered solid weekly advances, reflecting renewed momentum in smaller ecosystem and infrastructure-linked tokens. OKB, AAVE, and TAO added steady gains, suggesting selective risk appetite rather. On the weaker side, selling pressure was more concentrated than widespread. KAS and QNT both saw notable weekly declines, pointing to profit-taking after prior strength. ALGO, HBAR, and VET also trended lower, with price action suggesting fading momentum and limited follow-through from buyers. 

Overall, the tape reflects a market still in digestion mode. Majors are mostly consolidating, leadership is narrow and selective, and underperformers are seeing controlled pullbacks rather than disorderly selling. The balance between modest gains in core assets and sharper moves in pockets of the alt market points to cautious positioning, with traders rotating rather than committing aggressively in either direction.

Smart Money Moves

Trench activity remains muted overall, with no broad resurgence in speculative risk, but the last seven days do show clear signs of selective smart money engagement. Net flows are modest in size, reflecting a cautious tape, yet they are consistent across several names, which is often how positioning starts in quieter market phases. SORA stands out with roughly $66K in 7-day inflows, followed by 哈基米, BIBI, SCC, and SURF, all of which saw steady net buying despite limited follow-through in price. Importantly, many of these tokens also show positive or stable 30-day flows, suggesting accumulation is extending beyond a single short-term impulse rather than being purely reactive.

Looking at holdings, smart money exposure remains concentrated rather than dispersed, reinforcing the idea of deliberate positioning. Larger, more established allocations are visible in META, LDO, USCC, and TIBBIR, where balances are meaningful in size and have held steady over the past week. In contrast, several of the names showing inflows on the flow dashboard are still held by a small number of wallets, pointing to early-stage accumulation rather than crowded trades. Taken together, the data suggests the trenches are still quiet at the surface, but capital is quietly rotating into select setups where conviction appears higher, favoring patience and structure over aggressive risk-taking.

Prediction markets continue to stand out as one of the clearest winners of this cycle, with Polymarket sitting at the center of that activity. Wallet participation has kept climbing steadily, with active wallet counts pushing to new highs into year end. The growth is not coming from a single category either.

Engagement spans politics, macro, sports, crypto, and technology, which points to broad user adoption rather than a short lived speculative burst. Importantly, activity has remained elevated even through periods of market consolidation elsewhere, suggesting stickier usage than many other onchain narratives.

That wraps up this post—we hope you found the insights valuable. See you next week, anon! 🚀