Satoshi VM On-Chain Analysis by Bubblemaps

Satoshi VM launched in early 2024, aiming to bring ZK Rollup technology to Bitcoin. While some question its technical feasibility, the SatoshiVM team believes they can achieve this. Their goal is to bundle Bitcoin transactions and validate them off-chain, easing congestion on the Bitcoin blockchain

The launch of the SAVM token was significant, generating almost $200 million in trading volume on its first day. Much of this success was due to widespread promotion by influencers. However, a tweet from ZachXBT raised doubts about SatoshiVM's legitimacy, suggesting it could be a setup

Here's an on-chain analysis in four acts:

Act 1 - The Influencers: “Dump the Retail”?

Many influencers promoted SatoshiVM right after its launch. ZachXBT sounded the alarm, suggesting these influencers were compensated with token allocations. This creates a conflict of interest, as influencers benefit from hyping the project to increase their tokens' value. ZachXBT also noted that some were quickly selling their tokens, potentially at the cost of their followers who were buying. SAVM's whitepaper reveals that 15% of the tokens were allocated to influencers, with very short vesting periods, encouraging them to sell.

On-chain data shows SatoshiVM gave out about 1.2 million tokens to 250 influencers worth $12 million at the time of launch. On the Bubblemaps 'Influencers' cluster, you can see a significant imbalance between what influencers and the public received. This was followed by sales of at least half these tokens on launch day, aligning with ZachXBT's concerns.

Act 2 - Other Winners: Snipers and the Team

Besides influencers, our analysis identified two other groups:

• The Snipers: These traders, using bots for faster transactions, made huge profits. One sniper earned $4.8 million (blue cluster), and another $10.8 million (red cluster).

• The Team: SatoshiVM's team sold 190,000 tokens for $2 million via 25 wallets (yellow cluster). They claim to have used Market Makers, but there's no on-chain evidence of this. Notably, the SAVM launch was done without CEX (centralized exchanges) support, allowing total transparency of transactions, visible on-chain

Act 3 - An Open Conflict Between Influencers and the Launchpad

Ape Terminal, a popular launchpad, had a simple agreement with Satoshi VM: 1% of SAVM's supply would be distributed to 100 randomly selected participants. However, a few days after the launch, Ape Terminal and influencers accused each other of cheating and malpractice

Our analysis shows that instead of 100, only 10 winners were chosen, with suspicious links to Ape Terminal:

• Winners 4-7 got the same amount of ETH from MEXC Exchange simultaneously.

• Winner 9 is connected to an Ape Terminal multisig wallet.

• Winner 10 got tokens from a DAO Maker wallet, linked to Ape Terminal's co-founder.

• Winners 8-10 moved their tokens simultaneously on January 23.

• Winners 1 and 2 won similar IDOs and sold on the same day.

Despite these curious coincidences, Ape Terminal denied all accusations.

Act 4 - “Whatever Keeps the Business Going”

Conflicts are bad for business. Ape Terminal and MacnBTC tried to publicly reconcile, but their efforts convinced only themselves. The many reactions in the comments underline the lack of credibility in their explanations

In a post on X, Ape Terminal claims to be a victim of an external developer who manipulated the IDO, while MacnBTC asserts acting on emotion, having received misinformation from a competing launchpad

Move along. Nothing to see here