State of the Crypto Market

It's Been a Minute!

We know, we know—it's been a hot second since we last kicked it with y'all. But guess what? We're back in action, ready to spill the tea on all things crypto. 

So, let’s get back to the grind, shall we?

Tl;Dr

• BTC and ETH have dipped quite a bit.

• Solana spot ETF to be approved next? 

• This season’s airdrops have mostly been pretty disappointing.

The crypto scene is acting all kinds of weird right now. Everyone's freaked out, asking if the bull run is done for. BTC even dipped below $60K for a hot sec before bouncing back. 

The bulls are feeling a little spooked, and the market vibe is definitely on the shaky side. But hey, that's crypto for you!

The “Fear and Greed” index is currently at neutral. A few days back, it was tilting heavy towards “fear.” And if you peep the marketcap, it’s been taking a nosedive too. We’ve gone from $2.6T down to below $2.3T over the past month. Yikes!

In simple terms, $300B was lost from the overall marketcap over this past month.

So, what’s going on here?

Market Movements

Let’s check out how the big 2 have been doing. 

Bitcoin (BTC)

Starting off with BTC. Someone call the ski patrol cuz we have been in a slide.

BTC has dropped from >$71k to ~$60.2k. That’s more than a $10,000 drop in overall valuation! To make things worse, the 1-day chart has made the bearish pennant pattern, which usually leads to a further breakdown.

The next viable line of support is at $57k.

According to IntoTheBlock, about 716k addresses scooped up BTC at this level. If the bulls want to stop the slide, this is the line in the sand. This is Normandy, folks. We gotta hold the line.

Let’s hope the buyers channel their inner Hodor and hold strong!

Ethereum (ETH)

Let’s look at what’s going on with ETH.

Ethereum has a major resistance wall on top between $3,380 and $3,580. This ain't no joke – the 20-day and 50-day SMAs are guarding this range like bouncers at an exclusive club. And inside? A whopping 6.4M addresses loaded up with 8.21M ETH.

Now, let’s talk support – or the lack of it.

The line at $3,300? Yeah, it’s about as sturdy as a wet noodle. If the bears decide to throw a party and smash below this, ETH could be taking an express elevator down to $3,000. 

Luckily, the 200-day SMA is hanging tough, trying to play superhero. Bulls, you better cross those fingers and toes, and maybe even do a little dance, cuz if that 200-day SMA crumbles like my New Year’s resolutions by February, we will be in for a wild ride.

And just when you thought it couldn’t get more dramatic, check out the 20-day and 50-day SMAs. These two are about to do a bearish crossover, like two ships passing in the night – and not in a good way. This crossover is the crypto equivalent of seeing storm clouds on the horizon.

Hey, listen, we ain't trying to be the bearers of bad news, but the charts don’t lie. Technical analysis is throwing up some serious warning signs. So, buckle up, HODL on tight, and let’s see how this crypto thriller unfolds! 🚀💥

Anyways, remember. We are here for the tech.

But hey, let’s checkout some of the best performers too. Solana has had a pretty good week.

Solana (SOL)

Between June 24 and June 27, Solana jumped from $128 to $150 as bulls took advantage of the ETF announcement news (more on this later). In the process, the buyers flipped the 200-day SMA from resistance to support.

Prior to that, SOL slid from $187 to $167 from May 21 to June 24. The lower band of the 20-day Bollinger Band stayed strong to prevent a further drop. Despite a recent correction, the price has stayed strong above $140. The Bands have constricted, indicating decreasing price volatility.

Airdrops SZN Has Been A Failure?

The BLAST airdrop was hyped up big time, but let's be real—it flopped hard. Everyone was expecting fireworks, but the initial token price was way lower than forecasted. We're talking a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of about $2.2 billion, which is nowhere near the $6-10 billion range everyone was hoping for. 

This massive letdown triggered a huge selloff, tanking the token price to almost $0.02 before it managed a tiny bounce back. 

The airdrop's worth plummeted from $354 million to $289 million, leaving users seriously disappointed.

And it didn't stop there. The total value locked (TVL) in Blast dropped like a rock, from $2.3B before the airdrop to $1.55B after. It has since dropped further to $1.48B.

This major dip shows just how much confidence the community lost. Even with cool features like native yield and a gamified airdrop hunt, people weren’t buying into the “points meta” for onboarding. 

The constant release of Blast Gold just watered down early participants' points, adding to the frustration. The hype train derailed, expectations weren't met, and the market went nuts. Now, Blast has to hustle to stabilize and win back trust to keep things rolling long-term.

Of course, this is not just limited to Blast. For most airdrops, it has been “down only” bruh. Most airdrops have been dumped harder than I was on the last day of high school (no, I am still not over it).

ZRO, ZK, and The Neverending Story Of Stinky Airdrops

The ZK airdrop, which looked lit at first, ended up being a major flop. They dropped 3.6 billion tokens to over 695,000 addresses, but it didn't keep the users hooked or the network buzzing. 

The hype led to massive airdrop farming, pumping up the numbers before the snapshot date. But after the snapshot on March 24, 2024, the network saw a big drop in action. 

The 7-day moving average of active addresses nosedived from over 455,000 in February to just 218,000 by June 10, and transactions fell from 1.75 million to 512,000. 

Turns out, most of that action was just speculative peeps playing the game, not real user engagement.

Plus, the hype and announcement of the airdrop caused folks to bail after locking in their eligibility. Unlike other protocols that dish out airdrops in installments, ZKsync’s one-time drop didn’t give users a reason to stick around. 

Even though there was a tiny bump in activity after the official airdrop confirmation on June 11, the overall drop in activity and users shows the airdrop didn’t hit its goal of boosting long-term engagement and growth. 

If ZKsync doesn’t turn these numbers around, they might lose their top spot as the leading ZK rollup network to new competitors.

Now, let’s look at what happened with LayerZero.

The LayerZero airdrop got roasted for its controversial donation requirement. Users had to drop $0.10 per ZRO token, which felt like a "tax" and turned the airdrop into a hot mess. Instead of being a cool freebie, it came off like an ICO, stirring up backlash in the crypto world.

The market didn’t take kindly to it either. ZRO spiked to $4.71 but crashed below $3.50 within hours, showing classic dump patterns. In just 24 hours, ZRO’s value tanked by 17%.

LayerZero claimed the donation was to prevent Sybil attacks and support the Protocol, but the negative vibes and rapid price drop showed that it alienated users and missed its mark.

Market in Full Jeet Phase?

Now, we ain’t gonna lie. People are being a bit..”panicky” out there. And there are several reasons:

• The airdrops that folks were farming turned out to be duds.

• SEC and ConsenSys are too busy suing each other instead of..you know.. Doing any real work.

• Two clowns went on stage trying their best to be appear presidential.. And utterly failing to do so, casting a large shadow on the already fragile state of macro market.

But hey.. Wait wait wait.

It’s all good.

We still have… let’s see….Martin Lawrence endorsing Cardano as the latter welcomes its Chang hardfork?

Okay, fine. We are not hating on Cardano. Good on them for getting the less popular bad boy to endorse their project. 

But something else came up that really got us thinking.

Solana ETFs Are On The Way

Welcome to the ETF era!

We saw this coming from a mile away. As soon as Ethereum Spot ETFs got the green light, it was only a matter of time before other cryptos jumped on the ETF train.

Now, Solana’s got the nod, cementing its spot as the third biggest crypto after Bitcoin and Ethereum.

But how do we feel about cryptos getting the ETF treatment?

Here’s the deal: ETFs let you have your cake and eat it too. Worried about regulators? Just hold your crypto indirectly through ETFs.

Whether they’re good or not? Only time will tell.

Anyway, that’s it for today folks!

We will be back this Friday.

Till then, hold on to your bags!