Trump's BTC Promise & Saylor's $280T Prediction

Hello!

Here is a quick Tl;Dr before we go any further!

Tl;Dr

• Trump vows to fire Gensler on Day 1 and make BTC a federal reserve asset.

• Michael Saylor predicts Bitcoin’s market cap to hit $280 trillion by 2045.

• Bitcoin faces major resistance at $70,000.

This past weekend was all about “Bitcoin 2024.” So let’s dive in!

Bitcoin 2024 Recap

The Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville was packed with visionary forecasts and bold political commitments. It might just go down as one of the most significant crypto conferences ever.

Critique and Controversy

Jimmy Song, a prominent Bitcoin developer, took aim at the conference’s focus on traditional financial institutions and ETFs during the “Make Bitcoin in America Great Again” panel. Song argued that these elements detract from Bitcoin’s core values of liberty and self-sovereignty. Fellow panelist Luke Rudkowski agreed, emphasizing that Bitcoin should address government-created issues and promote self-reliance.

Visionary Insights and Political Statements

Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, captivated the audience with ambitious projections, suggesting Bitcoin’s market cap could reach $280 trillion by 2045, potentially valuing each coin at $49 million. Even in a conservative scenario, he claimed Bitcoin could hit $3 million per coin. Under Saylor’s leadership, MicroStrategy holds 226,331 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $15.4 billion.

Senator Cynthia Lummis and fellow lawmaker Tim Scott discussed the crypto regulatory landscape without announcing new legislation. Lummis criticized the U.S. SEC’s regulatory approach, while Scott hinted at using Bitcoin to create “opportunity zones” in underserved areas.

Edward Snowden, addressing the conference virtually, warned attendees about politicians seeking crypto community support without genuine alignment with their values. He advised engaging with politicians cautiously and maintaining independence.

Finally, presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. promised to designate Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset if elected, planning to transfer over 200,000 BTC to the U.S. Treasury and build a reserve of 4 million Bitcoins.

Donald Trump’s Bitcoin Conference Speech

Former President Donald Trump made several promises, including firing SEC Chairman Gary Gensler (which got one of the loudest reactions of the night), creating a US national Bitcoin stockpile by retaining all government-owned Bitcoin. He predicted Bitcoin’s value would surpass gold and reaffirmed his pledge to commute Ross Ulbricht's sentence. Trump vowed to prevent the implementation of CBDC and promised to end anti-crypto policies on his first day in office.

Anyway, let’s look at the markets.

Market Movements

• Bitcoin

• Ethereum

• Solana

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin price has been on an upward trend since July 8, jumping from $55,600 to ~$68,500, despite some bearish drawbacks. During this upward surge, BTC has flipped the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day SMAs from resistance to support. Plus, BTC has also flipped the Parabolic SAR from bearish to bullish as well. On the upside, we have formidable resistance at $70,000.

According to IntoTheBlock, around 494,000 addresses had purchased 396,000 bitcoins at this level. If buyers break through this resistance, expect BTC to touch new all-time highs and enter price discovery mode.

In 2024, the open interest in perpetual futures has usually been between 220k and 240k BTC. This number drops quickly during market sell-offs and goes up when people are speculating more. 

Recently, it has increased to between 260k and 280k BTC since early June, showing that people are more interested in speculating.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum (ETH) price is currently sandwiched between the 20-day and 200-day SMAs. As a result of this stifled movement, the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) has transitioned from bullish to bearish. Since July 22, the ETH price has dropped from $3,545, flipping the 20-day and 50-day SMAs from support to resistance. Both SMAs are strong resistance walls.

According to IntoTheBlock, in both of these resistance walls, 6M addresses had purchased 8.34M ETH at these price levels. ETH prices have been under pressure due to large inflows of ETH into Coinbase.

As per CryptoQuant, Since the ETH spot ETFs began trading, hourly inflows have reached their highest levels since May.

Solana (SOL)

Since July 5, the Solana price has jumped from $127 to $186—a ~$60 rise in valuation. During this rise, SOL managed to flip the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day SMAs from resistance to support. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) still hasn’t reached the overbought zone, so there is more room for growth. On the upside, immediate resistance is at ~$190.

That’s it for today folks!

Cya!