A Year In A Week

GM Anon! 

We would say "what a week," but at this point, every week in crypto feels like a year IRL. Even when the market's narratives are relatively quiet, other developments take center stage—whether it's macroeconomic factors influencing crypto significantly or major crypto events shaping the industry.  

This week seems to have ended with a ton of macro developments, while on the ground it's been relatively quiet. But that doesn't mean degens didn't find some coins to ape into, which we'll cover later in this edition.

Without further ado, let’s dive in. But first, for those feeling a bit down, here’s some inspiration from an old post. This remains true: during these periods of uncertainty and extreme volatility, you lock in your positions and reap the rewards later.

LFG!

Major & Degen Movements

Another week of chop for BTC and ETH has many suspecting we may be nearing the end of this mean reversion phase, potentially setting the stage for another strong push to the upside. BTC did attempt a strong push up after the positive CPI news and potential for FED rate cuts, but couldn’t push past $60K.

ETH might be the first to properly break out, with the trading of its first spot ETF expected to begin in the next few days, according to industry sources. Time will tell, but in the meantime, other areas of the market have been experiencing noticeable or even significant price action.

Some major gainers were TIA (+37%), NOT (+50%), and Mantra (+34.8%). Meanwhile, older coins such as XRP (+4.5%), XLM (+2.1%), and ADA (+1.5%) saw noticeable gains despite overall market conditions.

• Established Meme Coins: POPCAT, BONK, WIF and MOG have attracted significant investments from experienced investors, indicating their strong market presence and potential for future gains.

• Promising Newcomers: PEIPEI, BILLY, and AURA have quickly become popular, showing impressive performance and catching the attention of smart money investors.

• Smart Money Favorite: LOCKIN has emerged as the top favorite among smart money investors this week, with its holdings increasing by an impressive 407%, showcasing strong confidence in its potential.

Macro Happenings

Let’s start off with some recent developments that will have enormous implications for crypto. Both sides of the political spectrum are pandering for the crypto vote. Trump mentions crypto any chance he gets, while the Biden administration seems to be pressuring the SEC to cool their crypto crackdown, likely to improve their odds of winning.

This scenario makes the upcoming election highly significant for crypto enthusiasts. Despite these efforts, President Biden’s continued cognitive decline is impacting the Democratic image and chances of winning. Just this week, he mistakenly introduced Zelensky as Putin and Kamala Harris as Vice President Trump.

Moving on to Germany.

So, it seems that Germany is almost done punishing crypto. Their holdings are significantly diminished, and it's worth noting that the market has handled the selling pressure relatively well if we continue to hold these levels. The German government has roughly 7K BTC left to sell, which they have been offloading continuously from mid-June into July.

It’s an interesting thought experiment to consider how history will look upon this event. One of the greatest assets to hold going into the modern future of finance, and the German government completely fumbled its stack. 

While we’re on the topic, it seems the Chinese government also fumbled their bags after recent news.

This is indicative of the changing paradigm occurring globally. Countries and regions once viewed as struggling or underdeveloped, such as El Salvador and Dubai, are now hubs of innovation thanks to clever governance and adaptability. Meanwhile, others like Germany, once associated with stability and innovation, seem to be completely fumbling the bag—whether it’s selling their BTC or tax farming their populace into oblivion.

The winds of change are blowing, and they’re blowing hard!

If you’re on this side of the net, then you’re probably the guy on the left. This is where you make it anon.

Other developments this week include US inflation cooling to 3%, marking the lowest level in over two years. 

• This significant drop from May’s 4% inflation rate is largely attributed to decreases in gas prices and a slower rise in grocery costs and used car prices. 

• This development raises the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates soon.

Looking ahead, a notable event this month is Donald Trump’s upcoming appearance at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville. Set for July 27th, Trump is expected to deliver a 30-minute speech, which is likely to draw significant attention from both his supporters and the broader crypto community. 

ETF Developments 

Moving on, big developments for all you SOL degens out there—it seems that a SOL ETF could be a reality in a little less than a year. 

• 21Shares and VanEck have filed for Solana ETFs with the SEC, aiming to offer direct exposure to Solana on the Cboe BZX Exchange. BlackRock, one of the largest global investment management firms, plans to apply for a Solana ETF very soon as well. 

• This move could further legitimize Solana and attract a broader investor base, enhancing its credibility and appeal within the traditional financial markets.

We're not sure why, but it seems that Crypto Twitter is largely overlooking the trading of the upcoming ETH ETF, likely to begin next week. This bull market has largely been unkind to Ethereum fans and maxis, but it looks like things are about to change.

And on that note, keep in mind that institutions like Goldman Sachs are planning to get involved in the tokenization of funds. Where do you think they’re going to tokenize these funds? On Ethereum, of course! 

• Ethereum is likely to be the preferred blockchain for tokenization due to its robust smart contract capabilities, security, and widespread adoption in the financial sector.

You know what that means? Ethereum number go up!

Key Metrics

Coupled with the recent bullish news on a potential SOL ETF, the supply of stablecoins on Solana is surging with an additional $250M USDC being minted on Solana just this week.

Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that there’s a significant spot premium for ETH and BTC, meaning the current market price is higher than the futures price. 

• This situation results in short sellers (betting prices will drop) paying long holders (betting prices will rise) to keep their positions open due to a negative funding rate. 

• This suggests strong short-term demand and bullish sentiment in the spot market, despite a predominance of short positions in the futures market.

Bitcoin transaction fees have fallen to their lowest level in four years, while miners remain profitable despite reduced costs.

• On July 7, Bitcoin transaction fees hit a four-year low of $38.69, a level last seen during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This decrease is attributed to lower demand for block space and data volume.

• Despite the lower transaction fees, Bitcoin miners remain profitable due to reduced network difficulty and lower computational power requirements, allowing them to maintain their operations effectively.

Actionables: Berachain

Berachain is a Tendermint-based, EVM-compatible Layer 1 blockchain with a unique Proof of Liquidity consensus. It’s one of the most highly anticipated L1s launching, so it might be worth doing a few tasks that could qualify you for the confirmed upcoming airdrop. 

Berachain has raised a total of $142M and is backed by some huge VCs, including Polychain Capital. Berachain’s public testnet was launched in January 2024 and is currently ongoing.

Berachain uses a tri-token model with $BERA for transaction fees, $BGT for governance, and $HONEY as a stablecoin. Its testnet launched in January 2024.

• 🐻 $BERA: A native token for paying transaction fees

• 🐝 $BGT: A governance token to drive liquidity supply from users

• 🍯 $HONEY: A native Stablecoin

Testnet Guide

Add Berachain testnet to your Metamask using the following credentials:

• Network: Berachain Artio

• RPC URL: https://artio.rpc.berachain.com/

• Chain ID: 80085

• Currency symbol: BERA

• Block explorer URL: https://artio.beratrail.io/

a) Claim testnet tokens

• Go to Berachain faucet

• Enter your wallet address

• Click on the "Drip tokens"

• You’ll need to claim tokens a few times

b) Swap

• Go to BEX page

• Connect wallet

• Swap $BERA to $stgUSDC

c) Swap

• Go to BEX page

• Connect wallet

• Swap $stgUSDC to $HONEY

d) Pool

• Go to BEX webpage

• Connect wallet

• Add liquidity to a pool

e) Trade

• Go to Berachain perpetuals

• Connect wallet

• Open any long or short trade

That wraps up today's insights! We hope you enjoyed today’s issue! Till next time anon.